719
FXUS61 KRLX 300712
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy weather today with possible severe storms. A cold front
brings an end to threat Sunday evening. Dry to start the week,
becoming hot again Tuesday. Next chance for rain is Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley around 8 AM this morning
to encounter a very juicy and unstable environment with SB CAPE
exceeding 3000 J/Kg, PWATs around 2 inches and deep layered shear
from 25 to 40 knots. Latest Hi-res CAMS suggest additional showers
and thunderstorms will develop under this environment during the
predawn hours as the front arrives. Any thunderstorm that manage
to develop will produce heavy downpours capable to produce minor
localized water issues along their path. In addition, strong gusty
winds will accompany the stronger storms. SPC has outlooked most
of the area under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, except
for SE OH where general thunderstorms exist.

The cold front will move slowly east with convective elements ahead
of the front continuing into the afternoon hours when heating
becomes part of the equation. The cold front finally exits southeast
of the Appalachians by 9 PM Sunday with precipitation gradually
tapering off from west to east behind the front.

Warm temperatures this afternoon, ranging from the mid to upper 80s
lowlands, into the lower 70s higher elevations. Behind the front, a
broad surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes providing
northerly flow and much fresher airmass to the area Sunday evening.
Lows are expected to be in the mid to lower 50s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 40s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

To start this period off, a broad surface high will be draped
across the region, therefore promoting settled weather. Upper
level ridging builds in through the rest of Monday reinforcing
fair weather. Due to northerly flow and passage of the cold
front from the previous day cold air advection will keep
temperatures down to below seasonable across the entire CWA. It
will actually then give us a night of cool and quiet weather
for a change.

Tuesday is kind of a different story although high pressure
will remain at all levels, but the surface high will eventually
drive east away from the area. A warming trend will then take
place with temperatures expected to be slightly above
seasonable by Tuesday afternoon. However, with southerly flow
and dewpoints on the rise nighttime temperatures will remain
elevated for this time of year. This trend will go into
Wednesday with increasing warm air advection and higher
dewpoints topping daytime highs forecast to be in the low to mid
90`s across most of the area. With fleeting high pressure the
next chance of rain will be Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

With chances of rain starting off across the entire area on
Thursday a cold frontal passage will try and make its way
through by late Thursday although models have it kind of
stalling a bit to where by Friday we may just see the passage
take place. This will keep high chances of rain on the table
going into the weekend when models have another cold frontal
passage expected on Saturday. This all equated to keeping
chances of rain and thunderstorms for most of the latter part of
this period with mainly diurnal thunderstorms taking priority
over the rest of the time frame although we cannot rule out
nocturnal storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 AM Sunday...

Radar imagery shows the bulk of convection associated with a passing
short wave, exiting the eastern mountains overnight. However, the
atmosphere remains very juicy and unstable, and convection may
develop overnight into early Sunday morning ahead of an arriving
cold front. Therefore, showers and storms are expected to continue
across the area through Sunday as the front advance southeast,
finally exiting the eastern mountains by 00Z Monday.

Any thunderstorm tonight into Sunday can produce strong wind gusts,
and brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions.

MVFR stratocumulus develops before dawn Sunday. This stratocu will
gradually lift and break up from west to east Sunday afternoon.

Light south to southwest surface flow tonight, except strong and
gusty from the southwest to northwest in thunderstorms, will become
light west behind the prefrontal wind shift Sunday morning, and then
light northwest behind the cold front Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed for lower flight
category within storms or heavy rain. IFR ceilings are possible
along the mountains Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 06/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in stratus, at least in and near the mountains,
overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Brief IFR possible
in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ