676
FXUS61 KRNK 201417
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1017 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is very high for continued dry weather.

2) Upper level cloudiness may dim the sun for periods of time.

3) Temperatures will top out slightly above normal, but lack of
moisture in the air will keep the heat index lower than it
would be otherwise.

Another mostly sunny day with above normal temperatures
expected. Some higher clouds hanging on over the area, with some
cumulus clouds developing over eastern VA and NC, and spreading
westward thanks to the easterly flow off the Atlantic. Plenty of
drier mid level air per the morning sounding at RNK will keep
the weather dry today. Only minor adjustments made to the
forecast for this morning update based on temperature and sky
cover observations.

Previous discussion below...


As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Welcome to the official start of summer! The summer solstice
arrives at 4:51 PM EDT. The weather certainly supports the
occasion with hazy seasonally hot temperatures.

Similar to yesterday, the weather pattern remains stagnant.
Aside for some high clouds, not much in the way of moisture.
Large upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate regional
weather with subsidence squashing all but a few afternoon
cumulus...deep convection not happening. In spite of the
summer welcoming pattern, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean
will maintain lower temperatures at 85H and lower dewpoints
across our forecast area compared to the northern periphery of
the upper level ridge where temperatures are baking our
neighbors to the north. Lower dewpoints also mean our night time
temperatures will have a chance to return to something
tolerable for the overnight.

High temperatures today...78 to 85 mountains...86 to 92
foothills and piedmont. Lows tonight 58 to 62 mountains...63 to
67 foothills and piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 515 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1). Above normal temperatures expected to continue into the
weekend.

2). Shower and thunderstorm chances steadily increase through
the weekend.

The strong subtropical 598dm upper ridge that has been over the
northeastern U.S. producing record heat in those areas will
slide south to southwest through the weekend in response to an
upstream strong short wave tracking along/near the U.S./Canadian
border. The blob of hot air(i.e., 850mb temperatures => +20C)
associated with the upper high will likewise track
south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians
over the next few days.

By Friday, we will see temperatures begin to edge upward as the
protecting easterly maritime flow gives way to a more westerly
flow. Humidity levels edge upward as well as surface winds
gradually become more southerly and less easterly. Very warm and
humid best describes the weather conditions across the forecast
area both Friday and Saturday. With 850mb temperatures
approaching +20C and potentially slightly exceeding these
levels, heat index values will be near 100 across parts of the
Piedmont and foothills Friday and Saturday, but overall are
expected to remain below 100 degrees. Thus, no Advisories are in
effect or planned at this time. Nighttime minimum temperatures
will fall into the 60s for most areas outside the larger urban
areas, which will likely only cool to the lower 70s at night
over the next few days.

As the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes, a front system
will take shape and begin to sag southward into our region. The
models continue to come in slower with this pattern change.
Therefore Friday and Saturday should only see isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms confined to the
western mountains with the best chances confined to the
mountains of eastern WV through this time frame.

Look for high temperatures 80s along/west of the Blue Ridge with
lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures through this
period will be in the 60s, except hovering around 70 in the
larger urban areas east of the Blue Ridge.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction with High Confidence in
  Speed.
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 530 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1). Good chance for much needed rainfall over the weekend into
Monday,

2). Temperatures remain above normal, but a slight cooling trend
is expected Sunday-Monday.

3). Warmer temperatures may return once again by Tuesday/Wednesday
of next week.

The aforementioned upper trough and associated cold front will
sag southward into the forecast area during the weekend. The
hottest air associated with the upper ridge will shift to the
southwest of the region over the weekend and through the first
day or two of next week. 850mb temperatures will fall to just
under +20C during this time frame. Cooling aloft and forcing
along/near the frontal boundary along with increased low-level
moisture will result in greatly improved chances for showers and
thunderstorms bringing some much needed rainfall to the region.
The best chance for rainfall comes Sunday-Monday as the front
moves through the area. Some locations could pick up an inch or
two of rainfall during this time frame, but rainfall is
not expected to be widespread. The western mountains should see
the best chances for precipitation throughout this time frame.
Precipitation chances decrease Tuesday-Wednesday as slightly
drier air moves into the region behind the weakening frontal
system. In addition, the upper high and very warm temperatures
aloft will build back over the area by midweek.

Maximum temperatures will be mostly in the 80s west to the lower
90s and mid 90s east through the period, but at least 5-7
degrees cooler Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures will be
mainly in the 60s outside the larger urban areas where lows will
be in the lower 70s.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction with high Confidence in
  Wind Speed.
- Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Chances.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Expecting widespread VFR through the 24 hour TAF. Any morning
fog will be patchy and mainly confined to the river valleys.

Confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors dry conditions into Saturday with increasing
chance for storms Sunday into Monday. Overall VFR through the
period aside from any fog at LWB and storms Sun-Mon.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AS/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM