600
FXUS61 KRNK 251328
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
928 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight, providing
clear skies and less humid conditions. A front crossing the
region on Wednesday will bring a return of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Thursday
and Friday are expected to be warmer and more humid with a low
probability of any precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Dry and less humid conditions to continue through tonight.

Minor updates for cloud cover and to lower surface dew points
for the afternoon.


Previous discussion
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure overhead will provide mostly clear skies and
quickly warming temperatures today. Lows this morning in the
50s/60s will warm into the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s by this
afternoon. Large scale subsidence should prevent any chance for
showers/storms.

Some morning fog possible by daybreak, but will quickly diminish
after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid conditions on Wednesday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon with the
best chance during Wednesday and Thursday.

With high pressure situated offshore to provide a southwest flow
across the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, hot and humid conditions will
return as dewpoints rise into the 60s and temperatures soar into the
mid 80s to the upper 90s. The heat index could briefly reach between
100 and 105 degrees along and east of a line from Danville to
Lynchburg. This increase in heat and humidity will allow CAPE to
rise up to 2,000 J/kg as a cold front approaches the Ohio River
Valley. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will develop during
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may become
strong enough to pose a risk of severe weather with damaging winds
as the main threat.

High-resolution models show a line of convection firing along the
Blue Ridge on Wednesday afternoon and moving east to the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, another line of storms will enter West Virginia just
ahead of the cold front during Wednesday evening and enter Virginia
by early Wednesday night. The cold front should cross the Mid
Atlantic on Thursday, which will allow more showers and
thunderstorms to fire across the Piedmont. Drier air will follow
after the frontal passage, but high pressure should pass to the
north on Thursday night to steer the flow back towards the east. As
a result of the increasing moisture convergence along the southern
Blue Ridge, more storms may occur for Friday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures may only dip a few degrees during Thursday and Friday,
but values should still remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures staying above normal
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue each
afternoon, but the highest odds occur on Sunday.

The flow should turn towards the south on Saturday in response to a
cold front entering the Ohio River Valley, and the increase in warm
air advection and synoptic lift will yield scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, the highest
chance and greatest coverage of convection occurs on Sunday when the
cold front approaches the Appalachian Mountains. Strong storms may
be possible during Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night. High
pressure will provide drier air by late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, but the cold front may slow down as it tries to push
southward towards South Carolina. The close proximity of this
frontal boundary may be enough to keep a low chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms in North Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure overhead will provide widespread VFR conditions
through the valid 24hr TAF period. Winds will remain light, from
the south, around 5kts during the day. Light to calm winds
overnight.

Patchy valley fog this morning will dissipate by 8am.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions expected through much of the week, with the only
exception being areas of valley fog in the early morning hours,
and with any storms Wednesday.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again by
the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG