303
FXUS64 KSHV 231119
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing
into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going,
with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to
low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and
cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and
upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be
very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances
shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin
working SE through the Plains. This second front should push
through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much
cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range
in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through
Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend
on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back
south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain
appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this
low meanders as well.

The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely
associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling
somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north,
and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will
begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue
to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the 23/12z TAF update...A weak cold front extends from
Terrell, TX to Hochatown, OK to Clarksville, AR this morning. In
association with this cold front, showers and thunderstorms are
moving along a very similar line and starting to move into our
area. Models indicate that this activity should diminish before
there is any significant impact to any terminals, however, I have
included some VCSH to KTYR and KGGG, as some of it could get close
to them. As this morning`s showers diminish, there should be some
redevelopment by this afternoon that could bring some
thunderstorms to more terminals. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  87  68 /  20  20  30  30
MLU  93  73  89  67 /   0  10  40  40
DEQ  84  62  85  60 /  60  30  10  30
TXK  89  67  86  64 /  40  30  20  30
ELD  91  68  86  64 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  90  68  88  66 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  91  69  87  65 /  30  30  30  30
LFK  92  73  89  68 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33