521
FXUS64 KSHV 270544
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Clear skies and plenty of dry air aloft will keep conditions quiet
and cool this evening as temperatures are on pace with the
afternoon package to once again fall into the lower 60`s, with
some upper 50`s scattered into the mix. As a result, not proposing
any changes to the overnight forecast with this evening update.
Only adjustment was to QC the hourlies to match recent trends,
which resulted in little to no correction to the currently
advertised forecast.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Mostly clear skies with only a few clouds have dominated ArkLaTex
skies today and look to continue to do so overnight, while
prevailing northerly winds and a much drier air mass than we have
recently experienced work together with the clear skies to plunge
low temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s, a pleasant and
very literal breath of fresh air as we begin to cast off the
tedious oppressive heat and humidity of summer.

However, before the much-anticipated fall-like conditions can
prevail, a last few wx grids bear mentioning. While our upper level
trough forms a large and deep closed low over eastern Arkansas and
western Tennessee, Hurricane Helene will be approaching landfall
along the Florida panhandle, overnight tonight into tomorrow
morning. Long-range forecast models have been persistent in
depicting suggested a Fujiwara effect resulting from their
interaction. Specifically, as Helene approaches land and
intensifies, its presence will help amplify the middle Mississippi
low upon approach. As Helene moves inland, it looks to get picked up
by the circulation surrounding the middle Mississippi low, and swung
around to the northwest over the Ohio Valley before ultimately
getting absorbed by the Mississippi low.

The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form
of a few rounds of showers and storms across our northeastern zones
Friday afternoon, swept in from the north on the western fringes of
the upper level closed low to our northeast. The latest guidance
keeps this activity mostly to the north of the I-20 corridor,
primarily impacting DeQueen down towards El Dorado, with the
possible exception of some slight chances diving south towards
Monroe  Friday afternoon. This activity looks to dissipate late
Friday evening, lifting north and east overnight, with quiet
conditions to follow. In a nutshell, the dry airmass introduced this
week by our recent cold front will stick around, allowing for warm
afternoons and pleasantly cool mornings.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

After Hurricane Helene gets absorbed by the upper level low over the
Mississippi Valley, which looks to occur during the day Friday, the
resulting low will deepen considerably, depicted with 560 dam
heights in the GFS solution, along with closed isoheight lines
reaching from Chicagoland to the Gulf Coast.

Despite the formidable appearance of this feature in upper level
analysis, its pressure center looks to migrate northeast from the
Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley as it reorganizes itself.
This propagation will slide the whole system far enough northeast
to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the start of the
weekend, with dry and quiet conditions prevailing through to the
end of this extended forecast period. High temperatures may manage
to rebound into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the end of the
period but should not much exceed seasonable values, with
corresponding lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s
throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions to persist across area terminals through the
forecast period ending 28/06Z. With an increased pressure gradient
across the region, expect northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with
higher gusts today, diminishing to around 5 knots after 28/00Z.
Otherwise, could see mid-level ceilings around 10K feet developing
across MLU/ELD after 27/18Z due to the remnants of a dissipating
tropical system to the northeast. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  66  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  85  65  87  64 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  82  61  83  61 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  84  64  85  64 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  83  63  83  61 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  86  64  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  63  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  86  64  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05