594
FXUS64 KSHV 210238
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Still seeing a few showers on radar across portions of deep east
Texas, however, they are diminishing as I write this. As such, no
major changes were needed to be made to the forecast for tonight.
It is still going to be mild under partly cloudy skies. /33/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Dry and hot weather is now the main factor in conditions across
the Four State Region as tropical influences wane for now. This is
due to ongoing easterly surface flow that will also wane in
intensity through the next 12 hours as surface ridging shifts
westward and overhead. A warming trend will begin to take effect
as a result with temperature maximums/minimums in the
mid-90s/mid-70s. Dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s will not
help with overnight heat relief. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The hottest temperatures of the year are on the way to the Four
State Region this weekend into early next week. The surface ridge
axis responsible for this will continue to intensify across the
Southern Great Plains, maintaining southerly flow by Sunday. Long-
range guidance still indicates higher chances of triple-digit
temperatures on Sunday and Monday with probabilities above 15
percent (statistically significant, some areas higher than 30
percent), especially along and north of the I-20 corridor. After
the middle of next week, this ridge axis will break down further,
opening the door for more diurnal convection that`s typical for
this time of the year. While remaining well above average,
temperature maximums will also retreat from triple-digit
territory, but not by much in the upper 90s. Temperature minimums
in the mid-to-upper 70s will not provide much in the way of heat
relief overnight.

Heat hazard products are likely late this weekend into early next
week. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead of
time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For this
weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor
plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the
backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Scattered diurnally-driven convection will persist for the first
few hours of the TAF period across portions of East Texas, mainly
along and south of Interstate 20. KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK will be the
sites mostly likely affected. However, the showers should
gradually dissipate by 21/05z as diurnal instability wanes.
Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail at all terminals
for the next 24 hours. Another daytime cu field should develop
during the daytime hours of Friday.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  95  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  69  91  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  71  94  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  93  74  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09