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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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165 FXUS64 KSHV 290522 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Heat index values earlier this afternoon trended a little higher than expected with several locations meeting or exceeding Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Forecast progs for Saturday suggest that the upper-ridge will be slightly stronger allowing for afternoon high temperatures to potentially creep higher than today, approaching 100 degrees in some locations. These hot temperatures combined with dewpoint values in the mid 70s will allow for heat index values to soar to 110 degrees across enough locations to justify an Excessive Heat Warning areawide for Saturday. /05/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The old residual sfc front that bisected the region this morning has washed out this afternoon, with more humid air having returned back N into Ern OK/SW AR this afternoon. In fact, coupled with strong heating in the lower to mid 90s, heat indices have met Advisory criteria this afternoon over much of the region, including the Nrn sections of SW AR outside of the Advisory area. The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates expansive flat ridging aloft in place extending from SW TX E into the TN Valley to the Gulf states, with a weak inverted trough noted over SE LA. This trough has maintained isolated to widely scattered convection over S LA this afternoon, with associated outflow bndrys gradually spreading NE. Can`t rule out very isolated convection possibly affecting the far Srn zones of Lower Toledo Bend Country into Cntrl LA late this afternoon to around sunset, but have maintained a dry forecast as what is left should quickly diminish with the loss of heating. Given the return of higher dewpoints in the more tropical air mass, min temps won`t fall much below 80 tonight especially in the more urban areas, especially as some wind may be maintained overnight. The weak inverted trough aloft is expected to drift W just inland of the LA coast tonight/Saturday, and again focus isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon a little farther N into portions of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA. Otherwise, even hotter temps are expected with the flat ridging persisting overhead, with max temps in the mid to upper 90s areawide. Coupled with the humidity, heat indices will easily range from 105-110 degrees areawide, with some isolated locales possibly exceeding 110 degrees. Given the current heat indices in and outside the Advisory area this afternoon, and reaching this threshold Saturday, have expanded the Advisory for the Nrn sections of SW AR this afternoon, and extended it areawide through 01Z Saturday. Limited cooling is expected Saturday night with min temps near if not slightly falling below 80 degrees. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The progs are still in agreement with a weakness associated with troughing from the Great Lakes Region SW into the Mid MS Valley and the Ozarks Sunday drifting S along the Ern periphery of the ridge center. This weakness aloft coupled with the strong heating/instability and moisture in place should help focus scattered convection especially in the afternoon, some of which may slide SSE across SE OK/SW AR. Heat Advisory criteria should be met Sunday over at least much of E TX/N LA/portions of far Srn AR, but this will be determined as to the timing of convection development and cloud cover early in the day. With the ridge center building SE a bit more over the area Monday, isolated to widely scattered convection will be focused more over N LA, before the ridge expands farther E into the TN Valley and SE CONUS. Thus, any convection will be more isolated Tuesday over the Srn zones through the remainder of the first week of July, with the heat building further with increased subsidence. Thus, the need for heat headlines will continue through the remainder of the long term period. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For the 29/06z TAF update...VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout this TAF period. That being said, there is a low end chance for some MVFR CIGs for some of our east Texas terminals towards morning, however, I didn`t have enough confidence at this time to put it in the TAF. In addition, there is some potential for some VCTS for our southern terminals on Saturday, but again, not enough confidence to include them at this time. Otherwise, winds will remain light throughout. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 79 98 78 / 10 0 20 10 MLU 97 77 97 76 / 20 10 40 10 DEQ 95 76 94 73 / 0 10 40 10 TXK 98 79 97 76 / 0 0 30 10 ELD 97 76 95 74 / 10 0 40 10 TYR 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 97 78 96 77 / 10 0 20 10 LFK 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...33