054
FXUS64 KSHV 301730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Bumped a few afternoon Max`s and upgraded some of the Heat
Advisory to Excessive Heat Warning based on obs over the last
hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Padded a few upper 90s up to the century mark along I-49 from
Texarkana to Shreveport and Natchitoches. Humidity is just not
scouring in the river valleys and some rain showers have spiked
the dew points along our I-30 corridor. So with added room for the
max, we have made room for higher heat indices as well. Where is
that cold front? NW winds will veer to N/NE during the remainder
of the day. Some of the NE winds are getting into the Little Rock
vicinity now so in this sense, we are pooling some moisture as
well. No other changes made to the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing ahead of the front over W AR and
these will be moving south and backdooring with outflow to that NE
direction. Updates are available. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The "cooler" air for portions of the area on Monday will begin to
retreat on Tuesday and for sure by Wednesday with dangerous heat
index values returning to the entire area. To be honest, the
upper-level death ridge does not show any signs of letting up next
week. So bottom line, it is going to be hot with heat products
likely through the week. On top of this, precipitation chances
seem slim for the area, with the best chances being across our far
southern zones with any sea-breeze convection that develops. Long
range guidance is indicating a pattern change through as we head
into next weekend. All we can do with that information is hope
though. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few isolated showers have already been developing in extreme
Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas, but more convection is
expected later today, especially after 30/18z, as a weak cold
front moves south into the area. KTXK and KELD are the TAF sites
most likely to be affected, and rain chances are much lower at
KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK. There is still a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding impacts at any individual terminal. The
convection should dissipate by 01/03z. Otherwise, VFR flight
conditions should generally prevail.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80  96  78 /  20  10  30   0
MLU  99  77  94  71 /  30  20  10   0
DEQ  95  73  92  70 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  99  77  95  74 /  30  20  20   0
ELD  98  73  92  68 /  40  20  10   0
TYR  97  78  97  78 /  10  10  20   0
GGG  98  78  96  76 /  10  10  30   0
LFK  97  77  96  76 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     059-070>073.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-018>022.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-
     112.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09