Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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649 FXUS64 KSHV 141815 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 115 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Temperatures have warmed quickly under abundant sunshine and light winds as upper-level ridging builds overhead. Daytime highs should continue to warm well into the 90s areawide this afternoon. Other than the increasing heat, generally benign conditions are anticipated for the rest of today. The forecast appears on track, and no updates are expected. CN && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Thin cirrus and anvil debris allowing lots of sunshine for today with another warm to hot afternoon on tap. Rising heights aloft will notch up the heat a bit over the next couple of days. Current readings across our Four-State area are some of the coolest this far west due to the light and variable or in most cases calm wind. The surface air mass still has a toe hold along our I-20 corridor, but is moving into the SE U.S. So for the next days we will see our lows warming a bit in the short term. As mentioned rising heights will bring a few more mid 90s today and some upper 90s for tomorrow and Sunday for that matter. The last of the NE winds will end today and perhaps the need for Ozone action headlines in our TX counties with better wind speeds over the weekend. However, the wind will be back right off the Gulf and our dew points will recover quickly from this latest air mass. This will bump the min RH each day and added triple digit heat index calculations will be the case. The weekend still looks to get close to 105, but keep just shy on needing any headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The warming trend will continue to ease upwards lows and highs through Sunday with heat index values trending back down with the upper high situating to our east over N AL/GA, thus bumping our heights aloft back down a bit from the peak Saturday. We are still looking forward to a return of sea breeze activity late in the weekend and especially to start the new week as the upper ridge directs deeper moisture inland into the heart of our Four-States. The best chances will be southern most locales with lesser coverage making the trip across I-20 and much less I-30. The national centers are keeping any excessive risks along the coast and eventually a general risk for severe arrives for us by the new week. As the we get into midweek the upper ridge moves northward and we will see decreased focus for the tropical moisture for a few days and less diurnal convection. The GFS ends up with a decent cyclone in the W Gulf of Mexico for days 9-10. So until then and what that could mean, we will continue with lower 70s and middle 90s for the rest of Spring and the start of Summer. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Some cumulus may be present in the afternoon around 5000 feet and will dissipate after sunset. Some cumulus may move across east Texas terminals out of the south around daybreak tomorrow morning. Diurnally driven few-scattered cumulus is expected to develop across most terminals near the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable, 5 kts or less, throughout the period. BF/Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 94 70 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 93 67 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 95 70 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 94 67 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 94 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...23