360
FXUS64 KSHV 230657
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing
into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going,
with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to
low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and
cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and
upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be
very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances
shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin
working SE through the Plains. This second front should push
through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much
cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range
in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through
Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend
on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back
south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain
appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this
low meanders as well.

The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely
associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling
somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north,
and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will
begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue
to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the 23/06z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing an
increase in cloud cover that is moving into the region from the
northwest associated with a frontal boundary. Despite the increase
in clouds, VFR conditions are expected to continue for all
terminals, with the exception of KLFK where some MVFR conditions
could be seen this morning from lower visibility. The
aforementioned cold front will gradually push into our area that
will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms around
23/20z for terminals along and north of I-20. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  87  68 /  20  20  30  30
MLU  93  73  89  67 /   0  10  40  40
DEQ  84  62  85  60 /  60  30  10  30
TXK  89  67  86  64 /  40  30  20  30
ELD  91  68  86  64 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  90  68  88  66 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  91  69  87  65 /  30  30  30  30
LFK  92  73  89  68 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33