229
FXUS64 KSHV 051939
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
239 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Finally, I am pleased to announce a string of quiet weather headed
into the weekend. Upper-level ridging will begin to move overhead
tonight, and remain overhead until Sunday. However, with this, we
will be trading the heavy rains for hot and humid temperatures, as
afternoon highs will quickly climb into the mid-90s tomorrow. As
temperatures remain in this range, and standing water begins to
evaporate, dewpoints will have the possibility to hover a few
degrees above forecast. In turn, we may need our first heat
headlines headed into the weekend given the higher ApparentT`s.

Speaking of higher dewpoints: it looks like winds are going to
greatly decouple tonight behind this last complex, which should
easily allow for fog formation given all the recent rainfall. I
went ahead and introduced widespread patchy fog for tonight, and
some of this fog could end up being dense at times.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Rain chances will remain mostly isolated, and along our north
zones through Saturday, before increasing in coverage into Sunday.
Here, a trough and cold front will begin working into the region,
with the cold front moving through during the overnight hours on
Sunday. Look for temperatures to slightly drop behind this front,
with afternoon highs on Monday ranging in the low to upper-80s.
However, this drop in temperature will be short lived, as
temperatures will begin to climb once again into the middle of
next week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Ceilings are largely improving to VFR this afternoon, as the bulk
of the morning precipitation continues to move south of the
terminals. Skies will continue to clear this afternoon and
evening, eventually becoming mostly clear/clear overnight.
Clearing skies along with winds becoming calm overtop a saturated
surface will make for excellent fog conditions overnight. Patchy
fog is likely after sunset, becoming widespread and possibly dense
after midnight and through daybreak Thursday. Reduced vsbys are
likely at terminals, potentially below 1SM. Conditions will
improve through the morning Thursday, yielding mostly clear skies
and winds less than 5kts. Winds this afternoon out of the W/SW
5-10kts.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  70  94  72 /  90   0   0   0
MLU  86  70  91  70 /  80  20   0   0
DEQ  86  61  92  68 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  85  65  93  69 /  70   0   0   0
ELD  83  66  92  68 /  80   0   0   0
TYR  86  67  92  70 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  85  67  93  70 /  60   0   0   0
LFK  89  70  93  70 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Arz070-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Lazy>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Okays.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Txz096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...23