Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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300 FXUS64 KSHV 120240 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 940 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Made a few adjustments to rain chances and sky cover this evening based on radar and satellite trends. Otherwise the forecast is on track. An area of upper level ridging will pass across the region overnight, ahead of a closed area of low pressure slowly moving across the Four Corners Area. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be moving east across the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys, opening the local area up to southerly return flow. For the rest of the evening and overnight, an area of showers and thunderstorms will skirt far southern zones, while a few sprinkles and possibly some isolated lightning may pass through northern and central zones. The lower levels remain rather dry, per 00z SHV and LCH soundings so do not expect a lot of precip to reach the surface. In general, expect an overall dry night, with any shower activity resulting in minimal rainfall amounts. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s for most locations. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will continue to plague aurora viewing tonight, however some breaks will be possible here and there for the next few hours. Pinpointing where best viewing conditions will materialize and when is too tricky to discuss, as these conditions will be transient. Conditions still expected to deteriorate from west to east rather quickly Sunday morning with moderate to heavy rain moving into the area with embedded thunderstorms. Kovacik && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Quiet weather will gradually come to an end across the Four State Region as the weekend ends. This is due to surface ridging that will weaken and shift eastward, re-introducing southerly winds and a chance of precipitation into Deep East Texas. High amounts of antecedent soil moisture will create conducive conditions for flash flooding by tomorrow, therefore a Flood Watch has been issued starting tomorrow morning. Otherwise, temperature maximums and minimums will be moderated by cloud cover into the upper 70s/mid-to-upper 60s. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Active and wet weather will continue through most of next week across the Four State Region. This is due to a quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will keep precipitation going through Monday (flash flooding possible in Deep East Texas), then a break in activity precedes the next round of activity late Wednesday into early Friday. Severe weather remains a possibility as troughing will be strong enough on Monday and later next week to introduce some divergent flow aloft that aids updrafts in any convection that develops. That said, day 1-7 QPF values continue to trend wetter with widespread 3-6 inch totals expected and isolated higher amounts not out of the question (especially with rainfall expected into next weekend). Temperature maximums/minimums will be moderated by this activity as a result, remaining in the low-to-mid 80s/upper 60s. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR flight conditions will prevail initially but isolated to scattered showers will move into the area from the west early in the period and gradually increase in coverage. More robust convection is expected to move into East Texas starting around 10/13z before spreading eastward across the rest of the region. Thunderstorms, which could be strong at times, will likely prevail at most sites through the remainder of the period. Flight conditions will also gradually deteriorate. MVFR/IFR conditions are generally expected once the convection arrives. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 76 67 85 / 20 70 80 50 MLU 64 77 64 84 / 20 50 90 70 DEQ 61 77 61 81 / 20 50 80 60 TXK 64 77 64 84 / 20 60 80 50 ELD 62 78 62 81 / 20 50 90 60 TYR 66 73 68 86 / 30 90 60 30 GGG 65 74 67 85 / 20 80 70 40 LFK 66 77 69 86 / 40 90 60 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...09