166
FXUS64 KSHV 171755
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Despite the abundance of cloud cover and tropical moisture this
morning, temperatures have risen well into the 80s across the
region. Given these hourly trends and with convection still not
very focused thus far this morning, did raise afternoon highs by
a few degrees in most areas. As heating continues to help further
destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon, do expect an increase
in convective trends so did maintain the inherited PoP forecast.
So aside from these minor adjustments to high temperatures, the
remainder of the forecast was left intact. Updated text products
have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KSHV radar is quiet this morning following sea breeze convection
across the eastern tier of the FA yesterday afternoon. Onshore
southerly flow continues to strengthen as the pressure gradient
located across the GOM tightens, amplifying the northward
advection of deep tropical moisture originating from a broad
Monsoon Gyre located across the Yucatan Peninsula. The arrival of
this moisture, along with diurnally driven instability this
afternoon, will support showers and thunderstorms across the FA.
Not ruling out a few showers early this morning across north-
central LA as influence from a perturbation rounding the western
edge of the upper-level ridge over the Carolinas works north
across eastern LA and western MS.

There still remains some uncertainty surrounding the coverage of
afternoon convection as some hi-res solutions have trended down
just a bit when compared to this time yesterday. That being said
though, the majority of the CAMs continue to support afternoon
convection in an environment of increasing PWATs and afternoon
MaxT`s in the upper 80`s to near 90 deg F. What does materialize
convectively should trend down some by the evening and overnight,
with additional development Tuesday.

By Tuesday morning, the broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms across the Yucatan Peninsula will enter the Bay of
Campeche, working west to northwest. At the same time, tropical
moisture will continue to enter the Ark-La-Tex, setting the stage
for an additional round of showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. It is worth mentioning that coverage has been trending
down for Tuesday as the latest guidance suggests the strengthening
and expansion of the upper-level ridge, cutting off the tropical
airmass from advancing further north. That being said, still
expecting showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

By early Wednesday morning, the tropical low across the SW GOM will
work inland. Whether that is south Texas or Mexico is still to be
determined, but as it does so, the associated tropical moisture
column will focus across the western zones of FA. As a result,
showers and thunderstorms will be focused primarily across Deep
East Texas for Wednesday afternoon. Given the influence of the
westward expansion of the upper-ridge, storm total QPF continues
to fall. Buying some breakdown of the ridge, the heaviest precip
totals should remain SW of the FA.

As the aforementioned ridge expands west across the Ark-La-Tex,
introducing a drier airmass through the end of the week,
temperatures will quickly rebound. High temperatures under the
influence of the upper-ridge look to climb back into the mid 90`s,
with the chance for upper 90`s returning by the end of the period.
Unfortunately, rain chances are beginning to thin out through the
end of the period, with best chances trapped along the extreme
southern zones of the FA, citing the influence of any sea breeze
convective initiation. This will need to be monitored closely as a
lack of sufficient rainfall locally, and a prolonged period of drier
conditions, could support higher temperatures than the advertised
forecast for the upcoming weekend.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Clouds are slowly lifting and scattering towards VFR early this
afternoon, with some mid and higher level clouds noted as well.
Expect SCT-BKN lower-end VFR ceilings/conditions through the rest
of today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms through about
sunset or shortly thereafter. Mid and high clouds likely to make
for the ceilings through most of the overnight before MVFR
ceilings attempt to spread in from the south and west Tuesday
morning. Confidence in MVFR coverage is currently on the lower end
at the time of this writing. Scattered showers may again develop
Tuesday, especially through the first half of the day. Winds
generally SE today 8-12kts gusting at times to near 20kts before
easing some overnight 5-7kts and increasing again Tuesday morning
around 10kts.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  87  75 /  50  20  30  20
MLU  90  73  85  72 /  60  30  20  10
DEQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  10  20  10
TXK  94  73  88  72 /  30  10  20  10
ELD  90  71  85  70 /  50  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  89  72 /  30  10  20  20
GGG  92  73  88  72 /  40  20  20  20
LFK  90  73  88  72 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...23