Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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518 FXUS64 KSHV 050152 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 852 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 As the celebratory fireworks are winding down this evening, nature`s fireworks may not be far away for portions of the ArkLaTex. Specifically for areas along and north of the I-30 corridor, showers and storms may arrive before midnight, becoming more widespread overnight, with slight chances possibly closing in on the I-20 corridor by daybreak. The SPC is highlighting northern portions of McCurtain County, OK within a Marginal Risk for severe weather with this convection tonight. The most likely associated threat will be damaging wind gusts. Model guidance is still exhibiting some characteristic spread on the propagation speed of this system, but the general consensus as of this writing only allows the northern half of the CWA to see much in the way of rain-cooling relief from the heat which has defined this week. Lows will range from the lower 70s north to upper 70s and lower 80s south, followed by a return to the mid to upper 90s along and south of I-20 tomorrow afternoon, while to the north highs may only make it into the upper 80s. By tomorrow afternoon, storm coverage looks to spread across the entirety of the ArkLaTex. At this time, the region remains outlooked in General Thunder by the SPC, but daytime heating and stubborn dewpoints south of the convection may make a favorable environment for some storms to become stronger. Will monitor closely, as always. Convection may begin to taper off into the evening for our northwesternmost zones, but across the remainder of the region, thunder looks to continue overnight towards daybreak Saturday, while temperatures drop into the upper 60s north to upper 70s south. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Friday`s convection marks the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region, looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s, owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next week. Saturday will see a continuation of the overnight convection greeting daybreak this weekend, followed by a bit of a respite overnight, then another round of convection beginning early Sunday and continuing through the day. This behavior will feature in something of a "rinse and repeat" pattern into next week, as the stationary boundary remains in place. In a nutshell, daily rainfall chances are in store through to the end of this forecast. Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to southern Texas in the early hours of Monday. Beyond that, the track of this system is far less certain. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not look especially likely as of this writing, they cannot be ruled out altogether either, and we will of course be monitoring the latest tropical forecast updates attentively in the coming days. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the 05/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions continues this evening as the late afternoon cu field gradually diminishes. Convection to our NW will gradually spread SE overnight with advancing outflow boundaries possibly initiating new showers and thunderstorms after midnight through daybreak down along the I-30 corridor. Therefore, have included VCSH/VCTS at TXK from mid to late morning while low confidence precludes any mention of convection farther south and east. Otherwise, expect returning cu/stratocu with low VFR cigs by late morning or early afternoon. Light S/SW winds will veer more W/NW with advancing outflows and the eventual frontal passage in the latter half of the TAF period. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 96 78 92 / 10 60 40 40 MLU 79 95 74 92 / 10 70 40 40 DEQ 73 89 68 90 / 50 50 20 10 TXK 77 93 73 93 / 40 50 20 20 ELD 75 92 70 90 / 30 60 20 20 TYR 77 95 75 91 / 20 50 30 40 GGG 77 95 74 91 / 10 50 40 50 LFK 77 97 75 91 / 10 40 30 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124- 125-136-149. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19