839
FXUS64 KSJT 052324
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Early this afternoon, a cold front is located across central
portions of the area, from northern Tom Green county to Brown
County. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the Big Country, behind the front, with
additional storms beginning to develop in the vicinity of the
front. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon hours near the front, mainly across our
central counties. This activity should slowly shift south this
evening, before dissipating by mid to late evening near the I-10
corridor. The main concerns with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning, although strong gusty
winds are also possible. Expect an overall decrease in activity
late this evening into the early morning hours Saturday. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Saturday, the aforementioned weak cold front will be stalled
somewhere across our southern counties. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again possible, mainly during the
afternoon, with the most of the activity confined to the southern
half of the area. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Rain chances will decrease late Saturday before making a return late
Sunday into Monday as a potential upper level shortwave and weak
front move near the area. Rain chances look better to our north for
this system, but our area (mainly the northern counties) could see
some rain Sunday into Monday.

Now for the updated information on Beryl...The current NHC forecast
has Beryl making landfall early Monday just to the south of Corpus
Christi. Recent model trends are taking the remnants of Beryl on a
more northeast track compared to previous runs, keeping most of the
rainfall to the east of our forecast area. PoPs have been decreased
from the last forecast package to align with the new forecast track
and the lower rainfall potential. With this shift in the track, we
also see a shift to warmer temperatures. Without the rain and
extensive cloud cover from Beryl and the increased subsidence on its
western side, temperatures will likely be warmer than with the
previous, more western, track. However, northerly winds on the
western side of the low will help keep temperatures a little lower
for Tuesday and Wednesday than they otherwise would be, before
winds switch back to the south. There is still a chance that Beryl
could bring rain to our area, but it looks less likely with every
model run.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Thunderstorms have mostly come to an end this evening, although a
few isolated cells are still possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through tomorrow afternoon, when thunderstorm chances
increase again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  90  72  96 /  20  30   0   0
San Angelo  72  93  73  99 /  20  40  10   0
Junction    73  93  73  96 /  30  50  10  10
Brownwood   71  90  72  96 /  20  40   0   0
Sweetwater  69  91  73  98 /  20  30   0   0
Ozona       73  92  72  96 /  30  40   0   0
Brady       72  89  72  93 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK