Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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579 FXUS64 KSJT 292358 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Not really much to add to the ongoing short term forecast as the hot and dry conditions continue. More cloud cover today has somewhat limited temperatures, but there has been some small decrease in thickness values and 850mb temperatures as well. Models suggest some of this drop will continue Sunday well, with guidance temperatures mainly in the 98-102 range. Have gone above guidance a degree or two but this is still cooler than what we have been looking at most of the last week. With that in mind, will probably trip back the Heat Advisory along the western counties some, where lower dewpoints will keep Heat Index values down a few degrees verse what we will be looking at across the area east of an Abilene to Brady line. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The main weather concern over the next week will be the heat. The upper level ridge will continue to sit over our area and dominate our weather for most of the long term period. The ridge will start to shift eastward on Tuesday, and will eventually start to weaken as a shortwave trough moves over the northern U.S. Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will stay above-normal, with much of the area in the triple digits, for most of the work week. Surface winds should generally remain from the south/southeast keeping moisture and heat index values high. Looking at the Fourth of July specifically, forecast highs are in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, with heat index values around 107 in some areas. San Angelo and Abilene are forecast to be in the extreme category for both WBGT and Heat Risk for the fourth. So, there will be a very high risk for heat-related impacts for those that celebrate outdoors. There is a slight chance for precipitation in the northern Big Country late Thursday evening and overnight. But chances look better for later Friday and into Saturday. A surface low is expected to develop over the northern U.S. as the shortwave moves over that area. We could see a weak cold front, associated with that low, move through Friday into Saturday. Precipitation will be possible along the front as it moves south. We`ll have a better idea on timing and amounts as we get closer. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Low cloud development is expected in the early to mid-morning hours Sunday over much of the southern third of our area. Expect MVFR ceilings with the low clouds. A scattered cumulus field is expected by afternoon over mainly the eastern half of our area. Gusty south to southeast winds early this evening will decrease early tonight, and winds will veer to south or south-southeast overnight. On Sunday, winds will be mostly from the southeast at 10-15 knots from mid-morning through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 74 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 78 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Brown-Callahan-Coleman- Concho-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford- Taylor-Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...19