Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
429 FXUS65 KSLC 222104 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weak and dry cold front will move through northern Utah tonight into Monday morning. High pressure will build over the area through midweek, resulting in a steady warming trend. Temperatures will become slightly less warm late in the week as conditions stay dry. && .DISCUSSION...Seeing shortwave ridging this afternoon over Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon behind an exiting trough. In light northerly flow, seeing temperatures near to 5F below seasonal normals across the area. Have seen one or two showers develop over the higher terrain of southern Utah, with some cumulus over most of the rest of the mountainous areas and mostly clear skies elsewhere. A Pacific Northwest trough is expected to stay north of the area as it passes by tonight into tomorrow morning. However, the system is expected to push a weak and dry cold front across northern Utah. The primary impacts should be a very small increase in winds over northern Utah as well as little change in temperatures between today and tomorrow for northern portions of the area. Behind that wave, high pressure will rebuild in earnest over the Great Basin on Tuesday, with the ridge axis moving overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will bring a steady warming trend and make Wednesday the warmest day of the week with maxes expected to run up to 10F above normal for this time of year. Another Pacific Northwest storm system will bring some increase in southwest flow Wednesday afternoon, and move the ridge east of the area as the system grazes northern Utah on Thursday, bringing another dry front through. As a result, anticipating ever so slightly less warm temperatures for Thursday, at least for northern portions of the forecast area. By late in the week and into the upcoming weekend confidence decreases with regard to the temperature forecast. Seeing higher than usual ensemble spread in the temperature forecasts due to uncertainty about how much the ridge will rebound after the second dry front. However, confidence remains high in dry conditions over the next several days, with no precipitation in the forecast through day seven. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Fairly inactive period expected. A dry cold frontal boundary will pass on Monday, but do little other than bring an increase of mid to upper level clouds and reinforce diurnal NW winds. To that end, anticipate light SE flow to develop this evening between 03Z-05Z, and return to NW around 17Z-18Z thereafter Monday. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Weather anticipated to remain fairly quiet at area TAF sites through the upcoming period with VFR conditions prevailing. A dry cold front will pass through northern terminals during the day Monday, but do little other than help enhance NW wind component at most northern terminals and bring an increase in mid to upper level clouds. Otherwise, mostly anticipate a diurnally typical pattern to wind directions with magnitudes generally less than 15 kts through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Seeing generally dry and seasonable conditions across the state today, though lingering moisture has allowed just a few showers to develop over the higher terrain of southern Utah. A weak and dry cold front will cross northern Utah Monday, keeping temperatures similar to today. Behind this front, high pressure will build over the area, allowing for a warming trend through Wednesday as the ridge moves overhead and just to the east of the area. With the ridge positioned east of the area late in the week, uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases, but conditions will remain dry with light winds. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan AVIATION...Warthen For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity