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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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587 FXUS62 KTAE 270528 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 128 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Late this evening, we are in a convective lull, following dissipation of our daytime convection. Through Thursday, we will be watching convection blossom to the south of a front that will be sagging southward through MS, AL, and GA. There has already been new development this evening over central MS along the front and near a mid-level trough axis. As the mid-level trough axis moves east overnight, further convective development is expected toward sunrise over our Panhandle and Wiregrass counties, as well as over the Gulf waters. In an air mass marked by moderate to locally strong instability, as well as 15-20 knots of westerly flow at 500 mb, loose clusters of storms will further blossom and move east across the landscape during the day on Thursday, bringing locally gusty convective wind gusts, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning. The presence of clouds and pockets of rain-cooled air will hold inland highs down in the 90-95 degree range, though dewpoints mostly in the mid 70s will amount to instant sweat when you walk outside. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Troughing aloft leading up to the weekend will allow a stationary front just north of our CWA border to slide south, cooling temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the area Friday. Heat indices will see a brief decline into the low to mid 100s, with some heat advisories appearing possible. Additionally, some greater shower coverage tomorrow evening may be possible as this frontal feature moves through the area. On Saturday, ridging will begin to build into the area allowing temperatures to soar back into the upper 90s and perhaps the low 100s locally through Monday. Robust moisture will remain in place, resulting in heat indices reaching into the 109-115 range across our FL counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Heat advisories appear likely once again this weekend. Thunderstorms are also possible, though areal coverage may be less as high pressure takes over resulting in more localized threats. On Tuesday, temperatures may cool somewhat as a frontal feature approaches the area once again. Low temperatures each night through the period will generally stay within the mid to upper 70s offering very little cooling from the afternoon heat and mugginess. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are largely expected the next 6 hours or so at all terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible near TLH and VLD, bringing possible IFR/LIFR cigs and/or MVFR vsbys. Additionally, TSRA will begin developing near ECP by 11z, then developing further and spreading northeastward across all terminals between 13-17z. MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible in the storms. TSRA will begin exiting around 20-23z, with VFR conditions resuming thereafter. There`s some possibility that TSRA will redevelop near ECP toward the end of the TAF period, but confidence is too low for inclusion in this forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For most of the evening, Buoy 42036 has been observing west breezes of 10-14 knots, along with 2-3 foot seas at 4-5 seconds. Little change is expected until winds and seas start to decrease starting late Friday. Thursday will feature an increase in showers and thunderstorms. From CWF synopsis...A front will make slow southward progress through Alabama and Georgia through Friday morning, before retreating back north and dissipating late Friday. To the south of the front, moderate southwest breezes will prevail over the waters. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday as the front makes its closest approach. A subtropical high pressure ridge axis will build in across the eastern and northeast Gulf from Saturday through next Monday, bringing a further decrease in winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Moist and humid conditions will continue through the next couple days with above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will be well above critical thresholds. Transport winds will be occasionally strong out of the southwest and this will lead to potentially high dispersions, especially on Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of localized nuance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 76 92 75 / 50 20 60 10 Panama City 88 78 88 79 / 60 50 80 20 Dothan 91 74 91 74 / 60 30 60 20 Albany 93 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 30 Valdosta 94 75 94 75 / 50 20 50 30 Cross City 92 76 93 76 / 40 20 80 20 Apalachicola 88 79 88 79 / 40 40 80 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haner SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Young MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Godsey HYDROLOGY...Worster