Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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799 FXUS62 KTAE 101729 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 129 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The 12Z TAE Sounding shows over 1.4k J/kg of DCAPE and westerly winds at 500 hPa of 25 kts. The forecast SB CAPE this afternoon off the sounding is ~2k J/kg and model guidance has 2-3k J/kg northwest of the FL Big Bend. Meanwhile, 500 hPa winds increase to 30-35 kts. The Convective Temperature off the sounding is 92F, which will be easily attainable this afternoon, and there is also a weak mid-level cap near 600 hPa. The GOES Daytime Cloud Phase shows a line of towering cu propagating southeast through south- central AL and GA, likely along the leading edge of the greater synoptic scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. Expect convective initiation over Southeast AL and Southwest GA between 1pm and 4pm ET, with storm motions generally out of the west at 25-30 kts, with activity propagating southeastward thru the evening hours. It`s questionable how much, if any activity actually makes it into the FL Big Bend, which should diminish around 10 pm to midnight. No changes to the SPC Risk areas that are highlighted in the near term section below. The main threat is gusty winds with any storms and isolated damaging winds, but coverage should be limited due to the extend of mid-level dry air. Locally heavy rainfall if and where storms train. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The main concern for today centers around a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon across a large portion of the area from Tallahassee northward. A weak surface frontal boundary will sag southward into the area as an upper level trough digs southward. Ample instability will be in place, and deep layer shear values will be on the high side for summer time in our area given the stronger upper level flow. In addition, some mid-level dry air will enhance DCAPE values this afternoon, setting the stage for gusty winds with any storms that develop. There appears to be enough forcing for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Thus, a marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) is in place over most of the area this afternoon with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) clipping the northeast corner of the forecast area. Highs today will be quite warm ahead of the weak boundary, reaching well into the 90s for most area, and mid to upper 90s are expected around Tallahassee. Storms will gradually diminish after sunset, although they may linger for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Trough axis will be east of the region by Tuesday as drier mid- level filters into the forecast area from the west and northwest. Rain chances should be lower on Tuesday compared to Monday with the only rain chances likely to be confined in the southeast Big Bend where the better low-level moisture and seabreeze convergence with the weak frontal boundary will be in play. An isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out across the remainder of the Big Bend and Panhandle with chances around 10 to 20%. Slightly better moisture and perhaps the weak influence of a mid- level trough will allow higher rain chances on Wednesday, but even then significant deep-layer moisture appears to be lacking so rain chances will again only be isolated/scattered with the higher chances across the southeast Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The extended forecast through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend continues to remain highly uncertain. However, recent ensemble guidance has started to catch on to the idea that the onset of deeper tropical moisture might take longer to arrive into the forecast area so rain chances for Thursday and Friday have gone down and forecast highs have trended upwards. Most of these reductions in rain chances have to do with the upper level low that will cut off across the Gulf. Much of the guidance recently has been much further east and weaker with this cutoff low while trending slightly stronger with a mid-level ridge across the Dixie Alley in Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana. This upper level pattern is likely to keep the deep tropical moisture shunted to the east. While conditions will not be bone dry, thanks to weak disturbances moving through the ridge, the widespread soaker that appeared to move in at the end of the week now seems to reflect more of a typical summertime pattern, and possibly drier, if recent forecast trends hold. While the chance for a widespread heavy rain event has reduced, we`ll still need to keep an eye on how the pattern unfolds through the week as there are still several ensemble member solutions that could bring a return to heavy rain chances as the upper level ridge weakens and moves east, This could open the door for the deep-layer tropical moisture to move north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Currently VFR conditions with increasing cloud coverage this afternoon. Winds will get a slight uptick as well, becoming northerly as the night progresses. Scattered TSRA are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly near KDHN and KABY. Reduced conditions and gusty winds can be expected in and around any SHRA/TSRA. Skies will then begin to clear from the north late in the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Light winds and seas should continue into the week with slowly increasing chances for showers and storms through the week. A round of strong storms across inland areas could move offshore in evening bringing localized gusty winds to marine areas. Potential tropical moisture moving in from the south through the week appears to not be as widespread, and potential increased southerly swell from this system has lowered as well. Still, an increase in winds and seas is likely later in the week which will likely bring periods of cautionary level conditions and possibly advisory level depending on how forecasts trend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 High mixing heights will contribute to high dispersions this afternoon, mainly across the Florida big bend and south-central Georgia. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected with gusty winds near storms. Some drier air is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, but an increase in tropical moisture is expected towards the end of the week and weekend with minimal fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Widespread rainfall amounts through the week have trended down as the heaviest forecast rainfall amounts of shifted south and east. Current forecast amounts are not likely to bring any riverine concerns through the next 5 to 7 days. There is still a potential for heavy rain into the upcoming weekend and early next week, but the forecast remains complicated and uncertain. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 93 72 93 / 40 30 20 40 Panama City 74 91 73 91 / 40 20 20 30 Dothan 70 89 68 91 / 30 10 10 20 Albany 71 91 68 92 / 30 10 10 30 Valdosta 72 92 70 92 / 50 30 20 40 Cross City 73 93 72 92 / 20 50 40 60 Apalachicola 77 88 76 88 / 30 30 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Humphreys MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Dobbs