910
FXUS62 KTBW 290047
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Active afternoon evening for parts of the area, with some
localized rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches over parts of
Highlands County and areas of Polk County along and north of I-4,
along with some areas of northern Hillsborough County near
I-75/275 through the Tampa area receiving estimated totals as high
as 3-5 inches in a few areas. Activity has since waned a bit
although some showers and storms remain, but are expected to
continue diminishing through the evening. Made a few tweaks to the
existing forecast to better align the early evening forecast
hours with current radar/ob trends, otherwise no changes
necessary. Saturday will feature the ridge axis slowly nudging its
way northward across the peninsula, favoring a more typical
easterly flow for areas south of I-4, with shower/storm chances
greatest late afternoon into the evening, while areas to the north
will likely have lighter flow remaining a bit more out of the
W-SW with greatest shower/storm chances a bit earlier in the
afternoon before gradually diminishing into the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southwesterly flow will continue across the region today and
tomorrow as the ridge axis remains just south of the region. The
morning sounding showed moisture has continued to increase across
the region with PWs of 2.17 inch. Best chances for rain this morning
will continue across northern counties. Rain and storm chances have
begun to expand in coverage across our inland counties. Overall
steering flow remains relatively weak, so thunderstorm movement is
minimal. This will lead to very spotty rainfall amounts. Those that
are lucky enough to get under a storm could see a quick inch or so
of rainfall.

By Sunday, the ridge axis will shift north over the area further
reducing the amount of steering flow. Thunderstorm activity will be
primarily sea breeze and outflow driven into early next week. Then
by mid week, the ridge will shift ever so slightly north leading to
a slight southeasterly flow, though still light. Decent rain chances
are still expected with afternoon POPs around 60 percent, but
rainfall amounts will continue to be spotty with the best chances
for rain expected away from the coast.

Afternoon highs through next week will top out in the lower to mid
90s, but heat index values will reach into the 100-105 range. Be
sure to stay hydrated and take proper precautions if you`re out in
the sun this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Lingering convection continues producing sub-VFR conditions this
evening at TPA/PIE through around 02Z or so before improving,
with VFR expected across all terminals through the remainder of
the overnight period into Saturday morning. Ridge axis transitions
northward across the peninsula on Saturday supporting easterly
flow to its south over southern terminals through the period with
shower/storm chances greatest late afternoon into evening, while
northern terminals remain a bit more under the influence of sea
breeze enhanced onshore flow during the afternoon accompanied by
developing showers/storms, with a shift to N-NE likely during the
evening as convection pushes back toward the coast from the
interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Light southwesterly flow will be in place today with
southeasterly/easterly flow expected this weekend. Winds will turn
onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered storms will be
possible each day, with winds and seas locally higher near them.
Otherwise no headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

No fire weather concerns through the period with high relative
humidity values and scattered rain chances each day. Winds remaining
around 10 mph or less for the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  94  79  92 /  50  60  40  60
FMY  78  94  77  91 /  40  70  30  70
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  50  70  20  70
SRQ  78  94  77  92 /  30  60  40  60
BKV  74  94  74  93 /  40  70  30  60
SPG  83  94  81  92 /  40  60  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close