024
FXUS62 KTBW 292309
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
709 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Fairly zonal flow exists across much of the CONUS, with weak high
pressure at the surface. Today, the ridge axis is situated directly
over the FL peninsula, in a regime 1 type setup. Winds are very
light, but out of the ESE across SWFL and WSW across the northern
half of the penesula. In the transition zone between these flows,
central Florida is seeing light and variable flow. Sea breeze
boundaries continue to be the dominant mesoscale feature of note,
with thunderstorms developing along these boundaries as they ever-
so- slowly propagate inland.

The atmosphere remains very saturated, with the latest ACARS
soundings showing PWATs of 2+ inches across West Central and
Southwest Florida. With such light steering flow, the primary threat
for the remainder of the day will continue to be heavy rainfall.
However, frequent lightning and gusty winds (due to precip loading)
have been noted in the strongest storms. This is likely to continue.

Today`s regime 1 setup is a product of a shifting pattern. Stronger
ridging is building in, pushing the surface high farther east. In
response, an easterly flow is expected to setup and remain in place
through the rest of the week. This favors the continuation of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across West Central
and Southwest Florida through the week ahead. Near the end of the
work week, a trough digging over the Western Atlantic may push this
ridge axis farther south and west, bringing back another period of
SW flow at the very end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. A few
showers/storms will continue to impact the southern terminals
(PGD, RSW, FMY) through 02z. Conditions in these downpours will
briefly become MVFR to IFR. Expect quiet conditions overnight.
Showers/storms will return to the TAFs after 16-18z and have VCTS
mentioned in the TAFs beyond this timeframe.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are developing along the sea breeze
boundary near the coast this afternoon. Some of the storms may drift
over coastal waters this evening.  A similar pattern will repeat for
the next few days, with a few isolated storms developing early in
the morning along the land breeze and then subside during the
morning, before afternoon and evening thunderstorms move towards the
coast late in the day. Outside thunderstorms, winds and seas look to
remain light through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No significant concerns with scattered to numerous storms expected
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  91 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  76  91  75  91 /  50  60  30  60
GIF  75  92  75  94 /  60  60  20  60
SRQ  76  91  75  91 /  50  50  40  60
BKV  74  92  73  93 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  81  91  80  92 /  50  50  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana