Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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326 FXUS62 KTBW 291900 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Fairly zonal flow exists across much of the CONUS, with weak high pressure at the surface. Today, the ridge axis is situated directly over the FL peninsula, in a regime 1 type setup. Winds are very light, but out of the ESE across SWFL and WSW across the northern half of the pensiula. In the transition zone between these flows, central Florida is seeing light and variable flow. Sea breeze boundaries continue to be the dominant mesoscale feature of note, with thunderstorms developing along these boundaries as they ever-so- slowly propagate inland. The atmosphere remains very saturated, with the latest ACARS soundings showing PWATs of 2+ inches across West Central and Southwest Florida. With such light steering flow, the primary threat for the remainder of the day will continue to be heavy rainfall. However, frequent lightning and gusty winds (due to precip loading) have been noted in the strongest storms. This is likely to continue. Today`s regime 1 setup is a product of a shifting pattern. Stronger ridging is building in, pushing the surface high farther east. In response, an easterly flow is expected to setup and remain in place through the rest of the week. This favors the continuation of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across West Central and Southwest Florida through the week ahead. Near the end of the work week, a trough digging over the Western Atlantic may push this ridge axis farther south and west, bringing back another period of SW flow at the very end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Thunderstorms are ongoing along the sea breeze boundary, with additional activity expected to develop across the region throughout the evening. Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions are possible at terminals, along with gusty winds, if storms move overhead. Most sites now have TEMPOs for the mostly likely time-frames, but TPA and PIE could see another potential window for on-station thunderstorms later this evening near the end of the VCTS window. A more dominant ENE flow is expected tomorrow, resulting in a similar outcome tomorrow, if not a little earlier for northern terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are developing along the sea breeze boundary near the coast this afternoon. Some of the storms may drift over coastal waters this evening. A similar pattern will repeat for the next few days, with a few isolated storms developing early in the morning along the land breeze and then subside during the morning, before afternoon and evening thunderstorms move towards the coast late in the day. Outside thunderstorms, winds and seas look to remain light through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 No significant concerns with scattered to numerous storms expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 91 77 91 / 50 50 40 60 FMY 76 91 75 91 / 50 60 30 60 GIF 75 92 75 94 / 60 60 20 60 SRQ 76 91 75 91 / 50 50 40 60 BKV 74 92 73 93 / 50 50 30 60 SPG 81 91 80 92 / 50 50 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle