516
FXUS62 KTBW 281844
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southwesterly flow will continue across the region today and
tomorrow as the ridge axis remains just south of the region. The
morning sounding showed moisture has continued to increase across
the region with PWs of 2.17 inch. Best chances for rain this morning
will continue across northern counties. Rain and storm chances have
begun to expand in coverage across our inland counties. Overall
steering flow remains relatively weak, so thunderstorm movement is
minimal. This will lead to very spotty rainfall amounts. Those that
are lucky enough to get under a storm could see a quick inch or so
of rainfall.

By Sunday, the ridge axis will shift north over the area further
reducing the amount of steering flow. Thunderstorm activity will be
primarily sea breeze and outflow driven into early next week. Then
by mid week, the ridge will shift ever so slightly north leading to
a slight southeasterly flow, though still light. Decent rain chances
are still expected with afternoon POPs around 60 percent, but
rainfall amounts will continue to be spotty with the best chances
for rain expected away from the coast.

Afternoon highs through next week will top out in the lower to mid
90s, but heat index values will reach into the 100-105 range. Be
sure to stay hydrated and take proper precautions if you`re out in
the sun this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southwesterly winds generally between 5-10 knots across the area
this afternoon with scattered showers and storms. VCTS for all sites
through 21-22Z for coastal locations, 00Z for inland sites. VFR
conditions are expected with MVFR to IFR conditions possible in
storms with decreased visibility and lower cigs. Light and variable
winds overnight, turning E/SE Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Light southwesterly flow will be in place today with
southeasterly/easterly flow expected this weekend. Winds will turn
onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered storms will be
possible each day, with winds and seas locally higher near them.
Otherwise no headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

No fire weather concerns through the period with high relative
humidity values and scattered rain chances each day. Winds remaining
around 10 mph or less for the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  94  79  92 /  30  60  40  60
FMY  78  94  77  91 /  40  70  30  70
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  50  70  20  70
SRQ  78  94  77  92 /  30  60  40  60
BKV  74  94  74  93 /  40  70  30  60
SPG  83  94  81  92 /  30  60  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close