973
FXUS62 KTBW 232330
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
730 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Very warm and dry conditions today as upper ridging continues to
build over the region from the SW Gulf while the surface western
Atlantic ridge axis stretches back over the FL Peninsula. This
stacked ridging is producing strong subsidence and a dry air
airmass aloft. These features are expected to remain in place
with even higher temperatures likely through the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Mainly clear skies tonight into FRI as current seabreeze winds
shift E-SE overnight. SCT cu field again FRI afternoon as
seabreeze develops and moves inland aft 15Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong ridging over the area with drier air will
continue through the next 7 days with the main weather hazard being
the heat we will see across the area. Talking about the heat we are
looking at temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90`s across
much of the area for Friday through the holiday weekend. The
hottest day looks to be Sunday. The question will be if any
interior spot across our area will get to the century mark.
Looking at deterministic models the GFS is the only one right now
showing it while EURO keeps us under. Also when looking at the
probabilistic forecasts the warmest possible high temperatures (1
in 10 chance) puts a few spot right at 100 degrees. Due to this
we will highs under 100 degrees for the weekend for now. However
we want to caution everyone during this very hot holiday weekend
to stay well hydrated and rest as much as you can when outside.

The heat should continue into next week with the only main
difference being a small uptick in the moisture which will help to
develop a few storms Tuesday through Thursday but chances will
stay between 20 and 30 percent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong ridging with dry weather expected through the
Friday and the extended weekend. Winds will generally stay at or
below 10 knots either out of the south or westerly direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the forecast
period with RHs in the afternoon near or below critical levels
during the afternoon hours. Highs in the interior will be
approaching the mid to upper 90`s each day. No red flag is expected
do to light winds in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  93  75  93 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  72  95  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  75  90  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  78  91  78  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana