Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
277 FXXX10 KWNP 161251 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 16 1250 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 16-Jun 18 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 16-Jun 18 2024 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 00-03UT 3.00 1.67 2.67 03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.00 06-09UT 0.00 2.00 4.00 09-12UT 3.33 2.00 3.00 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 18-21UT 2.00 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 3.00 3.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 16-Jun 18 2024 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 16-18 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 16-Jun 18 2024 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 16-18 Jun.