Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
942 FXXX10 KWNP 200031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 20-Jun 22 2024 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 03-06UT 2.00 1.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.33 1.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.67 1.00 2.33 12-15UT 1.33 2.33 2.00 15-18UT 1.33 3.00 2.00 18-21UT 0.67 3.33 2.33 21-00UT 1.33 3.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 19 2024 0638 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 20-Jun 22 2024 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun 22 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely over 20-22 Jun, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater Radio Blackouts, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712, Region 3713, and Region 3716.