Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
495 FXXX10 KWNP 131231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 13-Jun 15 2024 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 00-03UT 1.00 1.67 4.00 03-06UT 0.33 1.67 4.33 06-09UT 0.67 1.33 3.67 09-12UT 1.00 1.67 3.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 1.33 2.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 1.67 3.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 S1 or greater 75% 10% 5% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation levels on 13 Jun and eventually return to near background levels on 14-15 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 12 2024 2246 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2024 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is still a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 15 Jun.