Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
761 FXXX10 KWNP 271231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 00-03UT 2.00 2.00 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 1.67 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.67 09-12UT 1.67 1.33 2.67 12-15UT 2.67 1.33 2.00 15-18UT 2.33 1.67 2.00 18-21UT 2.00 3.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 28-29 Jun due to CME arrivals from the event that left the Sun on 24 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 27-Jun 29 2024 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun 29 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 29 Jun due mainly to flare probabilities from Regions 3723 and 3729.