Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
202 FXXX10 KWNP 170031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 3.00 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.33 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 17 Sep due to potential combined CH HSS and CME influences from separate events. Background conditions are expected on 18-19 Sep. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 S1 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 19 Sep as multiple active regions exist on the disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 R1-R2 55% 45% 40% R3 or greater 15% 10% 10% Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 17 Sep. Probabilities are decreasing to a chance for M-class flares on 18-19 Sep as Regions 3814 and 3822 rotate around the NW limb.