Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
788 FXXX10 KWNP 160031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2024 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 00-03UT 3.67 5.67 (G2) 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 2.33 06-09UT 5.33 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 09-12UT 7.00 (G3) 4.00 2.33 12-15UT 6.67 (G3) 2.67 2.33 15-18UT 6.00 (G2) 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 6.00 (G2) 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.67 Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 16 Sep and G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms is likely on 17 Sep due to potential combined CH HSS and CME influences from separate events. Background conditions are expected on 18 Sep. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 S1 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 18 Sep as multiple active regions exist on the disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2024 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 R1-R2 55% 45% 40% R3 or greater 15% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 16 Sep, decreasing to a chance on 17-18 Sep. R3 (Strong) radio blackouts event probabilities remain at a slight chance through the period as multiple regions exist on the disk.