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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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077 FXUS65 KTFX 291432 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 832 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonable weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the area. Expect a wetter start to the work week, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon from Sunday through midweek. Warmer and drier weather returns for the Independence Day weekend. && .UPDATE... Visible satellite imagery and current surface observations have shown localized patchy dense fog this morning in portions of North Central Montana. Fog will continue to diminish through the next 1 to 2 hours as daylight continues to increase. The current forecast is on track for today so no changes were needed this morning. Webb && .AVIATION... 29/12Z TAF Period Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the CWA through the period. There is a small potential for fog early this morning at Great Falls and Cut Bank. The dense fog at Cut Bank should thin out between 12 and 13z. The next chance for thunderstorms generally develop after 06z Sunday over the Rocky Mountain Front and then move east of the divide towards 12z Sunday. Mountains, passes will start to become obscured along the front range of the Rockies by 12z Sun. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ Key Points: -Showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoons the first half of next week -Temperatures will be below average through midweek, with a warming trend for the end of the week Short term (through Sunday)... Tranquil and noticeably warmer weather is expected today as a transient upper level ridge slides across the Northwestern US. With this ridge and southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will rise into the 70s across the Plains, while some of the Southwestern Valleys will reach the low 80s under mostly clear skies. Sunday will be a bit of a more active day across the area as a shortwave trough moving into the Northwestern US begins to push into the region, along with a small jet streak. This system will help to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially across Southwestern Montana. While atmospheric thermodynamics will not be overly impressive (CAPE values will generally be around 1000 J/kg, which is enough for shower and thunderstorm development but it is not overly impressive), the overall dynamics of the system may be just enough to allow for the development of a few stronger showers and thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds. SPC does have us in a marginal (1/5) threat for severe, mainly for the potential for an isolated instance of 1 inch hail across Southwestern Montana. This seems to be reasonable, though some of the convective models get a little excited and show multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms across the southwest. This seems to be an outlier solution (seems to be about a 10-20% chance in the distribution), though it is worth mentioning that conditions could line up for a more widespread/sustained threat of strong to severe storms tomorrow across Southwestern Montana. Extended (Monday through next Saturday)... The first half of the work week will be strongly influenced by a broad upper level trough across the Northwestern US, which will keep North Central and Southwestern Montana on the unsettled side with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal norms. Expect highs to generally be in the 70s through the first half of the week with more or less daily development of a few showers and thundershowers across the area, particularly over the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana. As we move towards the second half of the week, models are in extremely good agreement (~90%) that upper level ridging will begin to make its return to the Western US, which will result in us drying out and rapidly warming up as warmth quickly builds across the Western CONUS. With this ridging quickly building, expect temperatures to begin to knock on the 90 degree mark as we head into the weekend, with warmth likely to continue into the following week. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 75 52 78 52 / 0 10 40 20 CTB 71 50 74 51 / 0 10 50 10 HLN 83 56 83 56 / 10 10 50 40 BZN 80 50 83 51 / 10 10 50 80 WYS 76 43 78 45 / 0 10 30 70 DLN 81 49 80 48 / 10 10 50 50 HVR 73 52 81 55 / 0 0 20 20 LWT 71 47 78 50 / 0 10 40 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls