Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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793 FXUS63 KTOP 281911 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 211 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few (less than 15% chance) random showers over western areas this afternoon and into Wednesday. - Beginning later half of Thursday through Monday will see the best rain and storm chances for this forecast period with Thursday looking like the highest chance period around 60-70%. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Currently, satellite and upper air data show a longwave trough with associated axis shifting through the eastern Great Lakes region and through the eastern seaboard. A minor embedded shortwave is working around the wester periphery of this larger feature into the western Great Lakes region where showers and a few isolated storms continue. Continuing to the West, a sharp ridge is building over the northern Rockies into central Canada. Another deep Pacific low pressure system and associated longwave trough is situated along the western Canadian shoreline. Over the southern Plains, an MCS continues to track into the lower MS Valley region with a large outflow evident into southern and southwestern TX. Subtropical moisture continues to stream over northern Mexico into extreme southern TX into the Gulf of Mexico region. A few isolated storms continue from northwest KS through western OK at this hour within a corridor of isentropic upglide enhanced by returning moisture and destabilization within an area of already steep mid level lapse rates atop the early morning EML which likely eroded quickly as temperatures warmed rather quickly through the morning hours. Little change to the going forecast has been made. The trend of dry and very pleasant conditions holds likely through tomorrow as the mid to upper level ridge from the west continues to work east with the southern flank moving over the area. Outside of some very subtle isentropic upglide over central areas once again early tomorrow into midday mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected. By late Thursday, the Pacific system off the Canadian coast will dig into the northern Rockies with a more negatively tilted orientation. This probably brings a severe threat along the eastern Rockies from north to south into the High Plains region. Southwest flow over the central Rockies will aid in deepening a lee trough over western Kansas allowing for moist advection to take place more efficiently through the day into the evening. Storm look to develop and begin to forward propagate east but move into a an overall lower shear environment with limited instability further east as storms approach the area into the late evening and overnight period. Still expect rain and possibly some embedded storms to move into the area late. Severe threats appear low at this time but western areas could see beneficial moisture (60-80% chance). As showers and storms continue to run out of momentum and work into an even less favorable environment east chances for showers and storms generally decreases into the overnight and early morning across the area with only about a 60% chance over eastern zones. Quasi-zonal flow looks to be established through the weekend into early next week. Generally low shear and limited instability looks to be the common atmospheric profile type in place. Weak and subtle shortwaves likely quickly advance from west to east off and on which keep the low chances for showers and a few storms at times through the weekend in the forecast. Shouldn`t be a total washout but hard to time when the actual periods of best chance POPs will be in place. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Little changes to the going forecast with VFR conditions in place. Could be a few passing showers at times, especially over KMHK. The chance of this is very low and VFR conditions would still be likely. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake