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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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384 FXUS64 KTSA 021125 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Temperatures early this morning remain in the lower 80s in many locations as gusty south winds persist. Dangerous heat will continue today as upper ridge continues to dominate the overall weather pattern. Given the recent rain over the past week, forecast dew-points were increased a few degrees compared to NBM across portions of area this afternoon, especially across far southeast Oklahoma and just west of Highway 75. Pushmataha/Choctaw counties were upgraded to an excessive heat warning where heat indices are expected to climb to around 110 degrees. A few locations in the warning area could see indices around 114-115 degrees this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper ridge will begin to shift slowly east on Wednesday. This should allow a weak front to approach far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas during the day with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Although deep layer shear will remain marginal, instability could be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with locally damaging winds. Hot and humid conditions will continue south of frontal boundary with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across much of the area. A broad mid level trough with embedded low will shift into the central/northern Plains on Thursday. Better shower/thunderstorm chances are expected with this system Thursday eve into Thursday night as cold front pushes through the region. A few of these storms could also be strong to severe. A significant break from the heat is expected on Friday behind front with some lingering showers/thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas during the day. In addition, temperatures should stay near normal through the weekend into early next week as a series of upper level waves traverse in stronger northwest flow aloft. At least low precip chances also expected through this period as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 No significant changes were made from the previous aviation forecast. VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites today/tonight with a few/sct cumulus and high clouds through the day. Southerly sfc winds will rapidly increase and become gusty by 14-15z/9-10 AM this morning. Frequent gusts between 20-25 knots will be common at most terminal sites, occasionally higher at times, through about 01-02z/8-9 PM this evening before subsiding and becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 100 80 99 80 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 99 80 100 80 / 0 0 10 0 MLC 98 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 100 76 96 75 / 0 20 20 30 FYV 96 77 98 75 / 0 10 20 10 BYV 96 77 98 74 / 0 10 30 20 MKO 97 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 97 77 94 76 / 0 20 30 30 F10 99 77 99 79 / 0 10 0 10 HHW 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67