Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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034 FXUS64 KTSA 211721 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Deep layer ridging continues to spread in from the east today. In turn, deep layer moisture will become less notable over the area this afternoon with PWAT values nearly half of what we have seen for most of the week. This will push any isolated shower chances west of the region within the deeper moisture axis. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday as a notable warmup begins heading into the weekend. Current forecast remains in good shape at this time. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper ridge to become more centered over the southern plains through the weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures expected Upper flow to improve some for the latter half of the weekend, which may result in a some shower and storms near the KS/OK and NW AR/SW MO Sunday morning. With low coverage expected, will leave mentionable PoPs out at this time. Upper ridge early next week will build across the SW CONUS, resulting in a NW flow pattern across the E OK and NW AR. `Best` chances for showers and storms come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a S-SE moving upper wave brings a frontal boundary into the area. Will include low PoPs in at the end of the forecast cycle as another upper wave moves across the central plains late Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will be on the increase in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe- but areas that see a frontal passage around mid week will likely see slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with scattered cumulus around this afternoon and mostly clear skies expected through tonight into tomorrow. Gusty south-southwesterly winds around 15kts across northeast Oklahoma sites this afternoon will lessen this evening. Winds will come around more southwesterly for all sites tomorrow morning as a boundary approaches the area from the northwest. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 96 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 72 96 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 71 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 71 95 75 97 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 69 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 69 93 74 94 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 71 93 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 71 93 75 94 / 0 0 10 10 F10 70 93 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 71 92 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...04