362
FXUS64 KTSA 291917
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Dangerous heat conditions are ongoing and will persist through mid
evening. Focus will be on increase storm chances later this
afternoon through the evening primarily across NE OK into far NW
AR. Sfc boundary currently aligned from NW OK into SE KS will be
the focus for storm development within an increasingly unstable
airmass. Short term guidance does steadily increase the effective
shear profiles across the frontal zone this evening so some degree
of storm organization is likely which will raise potential for a
few severe storms capable of large hail and locally damaging
downbursts. Mean storm motions will generally be east to west
which should confine higher precip coverage across the northern
periphery of the forecast area, however a more southward motion or
development should be expected with any brief supercell structure
and outflow focused new storms. The risk of severe weather will
begin to wane by late evening. Locally heavy rains should also be
expected as deep moisture pools along the frontal zone and storm
motions may track in a generally confined corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday along the elevated
frontal zone which will slowly focus southward into the region.
The composite sfc boundary / outflows will likely align further
southward across SE OK into western AR by Sunday afternoon.
Additional afternoon storms are likely along the sfc front while
some amount of persistent elevated convection continue further
north. Temperatures are likely to be highly variable across the
forecast area on Sunday with cloud cover and precip along with
frontal gradients all creating uncertainties. Along and south of
the sfc boundary may again approach heat advisory criteria but
will hold off on headlines at this time given wide range of
scenarios.

Sfc boundary gradually loses definition and realigns more north
south across the region on Monday. Upper ridge will begin to
strength overhead however isolated to scattered afternoon storms
are likely along the remnant boundaries. Heat will intensify
Tuesday into Wednesday and heat headlines likely return.

Pattern change expected by late week with ridging aloft expanding
through the western CONUS and downstream troughing aiding a
notable cold front push southward. The front is currently timed to
pass through the local region Friday with increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through today and a good portion of
tonight. Scattered storms are expected to develop along a frontal
boundary moving into northeast OK around 00z, with storms
developing into part of northwest AR later this evening. Overall
storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but gusty winds are
possible with a few, and any direct impact could result in brief
IFR conditions at NE OK and NW AR sites this evening. Data
suggests increasing probability of MVFR ceilings spreading into
NE OK and NW AR early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  88  76  95 /  40  30  10  20
FSM   79  93  76  93 /  20  60  10  20
MLC   77  94  74  96 /  20  40  10  20
BVO   70  85  71  94 /  70  30  10  20
FYV   73  87  69  89 /  30  50  10  20
BYV   73  87  68  88 /  50  50  10  20
MKO   76  90  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
MIO   70  85  71  91 /  70  40  10  20
F10   75  91  74  95 /  20  40  10  20
HHW   78  96  75  95 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14