Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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604 FXUS64 KTSA 292304 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 604 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Dangerous heat conditions are ongoing and will persist through mid evening. Focus will be on increase storm chances later this afternoon through the evening primarily across NE OK into far NW AR. Sfc boundary currently aligned from NW OK into SE KS will be the focus for storm development within an increasingly unstable airmass. Short term guidance does steadily increase the effective shear profiles across the frontal zone this evening so some degree of storm organization is likely which will raise potential for a few severe storms capable of large hail and locally damaging downbursts. Mean storm motions will generally be east to west which should confine higher precip coverage across the northern periphery of the forecast area, however a more southward motion or development should be expected with any brief supercell structure and outflow focused new storms. The risk of severe weather will begin to wane by late evening. Locally heavy rains should also be expected as deep moisture pools along the frontal zone and storm motions may track in a generally confined corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday along the elevated frontal zone which will slowly focus southward into the region. The composite sfc boundary / outflows will likely align further southward across SE OK into western AR by Sunday afternoon. Additional afternoon storms are likely along the sfc front while some amount of persistent elevated convection continue further north. Temperatures are likely to be highly variable across the forecast area on Sunday with cloud cover and precip along with frontal gradients all creating uncertainties. Along and south of the sfc boundary may again approach heat advisory criteria but will hold off on headlines at this time given wide range of scenarios. Sfc boundary gradually loses definition and realigns more north south across the region on Monday. Upper ridge will begin to strength overhead however isolated to scattered afternoon storms are likely along the remnant boundaries. Heat will intensify Tuesday into Wednesday and heat headlines likely return. Pattern change expected by late week with ridging aloft expanding through the western CONUS and downstream troughing aiding a notable cold front push southward. The front is currently timed to pass through the local region Friday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Storms developing on a front near the KS border have a better potential of impacting KBVO in the near term, so maintained TEMPO group for storm impacts there. I also left the VCTS for the other NE OK sites and the far NW AR sites given recent radar trends showing storms gradually shifting south. In the wake of the frontal boundary late tonight, an area of MVFR cigs is expected across NE OK. There`s low potential for some morning shower and storm activity near the KS border, so included a PROB30 group at KBVO for the morning hours. Some scattered afternoon storms are possible farther south on Sunday close to where front will be and have included PROB30s for KFSM and KMLC. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 88 76 95 / 40 30 10 20 FSM 79 93 76 93 / 20 60 10 20 MLC 77 94 74 96 / 20 40 10 20 BVO 70 85 71 94 / 70 30 10 20 FYV 73 87 69 89 / 30 50 10 20 BYV 73 87 68 88 / 50 50 10 20 MKO 76 90 75 93 / 30 40 10 20 MIO 70 85 71 91 / 70 40 10 20 F10 75 91 74 95 / 20 40 10 20 HHW 78 96 75 95 / 10 30 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-069. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30