153
FXUS64 KTSA 261124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

In a change of pace, today will likely begin with rain and storms
across portions of E OK & NW AR. An MCS currently located in the
C Plains is projected to surge south-southeast through the morning
hours with potential impacts in our area between daybreak and
early afternoon. While CAMs have come into better agreement
regarding this feature, there is still some question regarding its
westward extent and impact on afternoon temps (and heat indices).

As it stands, NW AR zones are most likely to be impacted by storms,
with decreasing PoPs further west... dropping to just a slight
chance west of the Hwy 75 corridor. These storms may be severe and
produce damaging outflow winds as they move southward. Depending on
the intensity and coverage of morning convection (and resultant
position of remnant boundaries), there may be some potential for
redevelopment this afternoon across SE OK/ W-Central AR. However,
due to uncertainty, will keep PoPs capped at slight chance for now.

Currently leaning towards the idea that morning storms move south of
the area by early afternoon with skies clearing behind them... thus
allowing temps to warm quite well despite potential for a slower
start. Will leave the ongoing advisory as is for the time being,
as at least E OK zones are still very likely to exceed Heat
Advisory criteria. In fact, parts of E OK may very well end up
climbing into warning territory if temps are not significantly
influenced by morning storms/ cloudiness (Heat Index >110
degrees). Opted to hold off on upgrading to an Excessive Heat
Warning at this time due to uncertainty regarding convective
evolution this morning.... but this will need to be monitored
closely.

The advisory also continues for W-Central AR, though there is less
confidence regarding temperature recovery here. Still believe odds
favor max heat indices in the 105-108 range, but if storms/
cloudiness hangs on longer than forecast, temps may struggle to
produce advisory-level heat indices here. Either way, it is yet
another day to take the heat seriously and take precautions when
spending time outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Any ongoing precip will decay or move south of the area this evening
with quiet weather overnight. Northeast sfc winds fill in this
evening and overnight behind today`s storms, bringing drier and
slightly cooler air into the region for Thursday. This should hold
max heat indices in check... generally in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.
The break from the heat will be short-lived however as upper
ridging expands back over the area Friday/ Saturday with
additional heat headlines looking probable.

Another front tries to push into the region later Saturday into
Sunday with a chance of showers and storms returning mainly to NE OK
& NW AR. This may provide another short-lived break from the heat on
Sunday but dangerous heat is forecast to return next week as
positive height anomalies return yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Chances for TSRA will impact the NE OK and AR sites through 16z
as a complex of storms moves through the area. Will include tempo
groups with MVFR vsbys in thunder at those aforementioned sites
during that period. TSRA chances appear limited at KMLC so will
not include any mention with this issuance. Cigs are expected to
remain at VFR categories before scattering out this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  74  95  79 /  40   0  10  10
FSM   97  76  95  75 /  60  10  10   0
MLC   98  74  95  77 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   97  69  93  76 /  30   0  10  10
FYV   91  68  92  72 /  60  10  10   0
BYV   88  68  90  69 /  70   0  10   0
MKO   96  73  92  76 /  40  10  10   0
MIO   92  68  91  75 /  50   0  10  10
F10   97  72  92  76 /  30  10  10   0
HHW   96  74  92  74 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23