332
FXUS64 KTSA 020749
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Temperatures early this morning remain in the lower 80s in many
locations as gusty south winds persist. Dangerous heat will
continue today as upper ridge continues to dominate the overall
weather pattern. Given the recent rain over the past week,
forecast dew-points were increased a few degrees compared to NBM
across portions of area this afternoon, especially across far
southeast Oklahoma and just west of Highway 75. Pushmataha/Choctaw
counties were upgraded to an excessive heat warning where heat
indices are expected to climb to around 110 degrees. A few
locations in the warning area could see indices around 114-115
degrees this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper ridge will begin to shift slowly east on Wednesday. This
should allow a weak front to approach far northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas during the day with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible. Although deep layer shear will remain marginal, instability
could be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with locally
damaging winds. Hot and humid conditions will continue south of
frontal boundary with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across
much of the area.

A broad mid level trough with embedded low will shift into the
central/northern Plains on Thursday. Better shower/thunderstorm
chances are expected with this system Thursday eve into Thursday
night as cold front pushes through the region. A few of these
storms could also be strong to severe.

A significant break from the heat is expected on Friday behind front
with some lingering showers/thunderstorms across southeast
Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas during the day. In addition, temperatures
should stay near normal through the weekend into early next week
as a series of upper level waves traverse in stronger northwest
flow aloft. At least low precip chances also expected through this
period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through
the next 24 hours with just a few cumulus clouds forming during
the daytime today. Southerly sfc winds will rapidly increase and
become gusty by 14-15z this morning. Frequent gusts between 20-25
knots will be common at most sites, locally higher at times,
through about 01-02z Wednesday before subsiding.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  80  99  80 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   99  80 100  80 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   98  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  100  76  96  75 /   0  20  20  30
FYV   96  77  98  75 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   96  77  98  74 /   0  10  30  20
MKO   97  77  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   97  77  94  76 /   0  20  30  30
F10   99  77  99  79 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   96  78  96  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67