933
FXUS64 KTSA 040551
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms (some strong) had developed this evening
along a boundary generally aligned along the I-44 corridor in NE OK.
Storms have since weakened substantially with perhaps just some
isolated showers continuing into the early overnight period across
far NE OK/ NW AR.

A semi-stationary frontal zone remains over NE OK/ SE KS tonight. As
a LLJ strengthens across the region, additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop within this zone overnight. Additionally,
convection from the high plains will be moving east with time
tonight, potentially impacting our area during the early morning
hours Thursday. That being said, most shower/ storm activity tonight
should tend to be confined to the OK-KS border area (northernmost
row of counties in NE OK). In fact, CAMs suggest most showers and
storms will remain in Kansas, with only a slight chance of precip in
our area. In any case, any storms may produce gusty outflow winds
tonight, even if most precip remains outside our area.

For the evening update, PoPs were adjusted to better match latest
short-range guidance and minor changes were made to temps/ dew
points to better reflect current conditions. Otherwise the
forecast appears to be in good shape with no significant
deviations required at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of eastern OK
and west-central AR with a Heat Advisory in effect for the remainder
of the area. Heat indices are currently in the 100-110F range,
and will climb to 105-115F. A few lingering showers will remain
possible into this evening near the KS border by a stationary
boundary. CAM guidance remains inconsistent, but does indicate at
least a 10-20% chance of a few showers and storms forming farther
south towards a line from roughly Tulsa to Miami later this
afternoon or evening. Otherwise, tonight will be another unusually
mild night with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Excessive heat continues south of the previously mentioned boundary
near the KS border into Independence Day (Thursday). Reissued
Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of eastern OK and west-
central AR with Heat Advisories elsewhere. A cold front will
overtake and advance the stationary boundary during the evening
with a good chance of thunderstorms developing at that time,
especially for northeast OK and northwest AR. The setup will favor
storms capable of producing heavy rain and strong downburst
winds. The SPC has noted a 15-30% chance of damaging wind gusts in
the area with the WPC showing a 5-15% of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding. Considering the PWAT values of near 2",
low level water vapor near the 99th percentile, strong CAPE, and
weak wind shear, these outlooks make sense. The storms and
associated outflow will move into southeast OK Friday morning and
out of the area by the afternoon.

Behind the front we can expect a reprieve from the heat and humidity
with high temperatures falling into the mid 80s to low 90s (Friday
and Saturday). Low temperatures will get into the 60s to low 70s. As
southerly flow returns Sunday, temperatures and moisture levels
will try to climb again. However, there is uncertainty with how
quickly this will occur, with the NBM temperature probabilities
showing a relatively large spread Sunday. Even so, considering we
will have a cooler upper atmosphere and a renewed chance of rain
as the upper level trough axis digs favorably into the region,
high temperatures will most likely stay confined to the mid 80s to
lower 90s. In terms of timing, rain will be possible for most of
the Saturday night to Tuesday period, but ensemble guidance shows
later Sunday and Monday as the most likely (30-50% chance of
rain). Ensemble cluster analysis depicts sizable uncertainty with
how far south the trough will dig during this period, but the
more it can dig to the southwest the higher our probability for
rain will be. For the middle to end of next week we look to keep
the upper level trough overhead so near normal temperatures with
at least some chance of rain will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR and tranquil conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight
tonight with just a few-sct mid/high clouds through the morning
hours. A frontal boundary will remain stationary along the OK/KS
border, with precipitation/convection forecast to remain just
north of the boundary and north of the forecast area through at
least the morning hours today. The frontal boundary is expected to
slowly advance southward late this afternoon and into this
evening and will be the focus area for additional convection
development in its vicinity as it pushes southward. Maintained
Prob30 groups at the NE OK and NW AR terminals (beginning around
21z) and added Prob30 groups for the rest of the terminals between
00-06z. Organized thunderstorms that are able to move or develop
over the aerodromes will be capable of strong, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall, likely lowering ceilings and reducing visibilities
for a brief period. Otherwise, VFR is anticipated to prevail at
all TAF sites through the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  69  90  67 /  70  50   0   0
FSM  100  75  92  69 /  30  70  10   0
MLC   99  72  88  66 /  20  60  20  10
BVO   96  65  89  63 /  40  40   0   0
FYV   97  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
BYV   98  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
MKO   98  70  87  65 /  40  70  10   0
MIO   96  66  87  63 /  50  60   0   0
F10   99  69  87  65 /  40  60  10   0
HHW   97  73  88  68 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-063-064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67