Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
017 FXUS65 KTWC 281000 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 300 AM MST Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. Storm chances increase over the weekend and early next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION...Last nights 500 mb upper air map placed the upper high over northern Sonora with westerly flow over the area. PW values were down a smidge but still running above late June norms. For today, expect isolated to scattered showers/storms with the best chances being focused across eastern Pima county, Santa Cruz county and southern Cochise county. Brief heavy rain the main concern today with PW values around 1.5", especially along/near the Intnl border from Nogales east. This weekend, as we close out an interesting June, an increasing moist east-southeast flow aloft with high pressure to our east will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, with Sunday being the more active day. Pattern next week leading up to the 4th of July holiday will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and heavy rain main threat from storms. However, there likely will be one down day. Just can tell this far out which one. Temperatures will remain on the warm side thru the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z. Decreasing debris clouds this morning. Widely scattered to scattered -TSRA from 28/18z to 29/04z with brief MFR conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally 10 kts with the occasional gust up to 20 kts this afternoon, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through the forecast period. This will bring widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms and showers today and Saturday, mainly south and east of Tucson. Moisture will increase more through the weekend and into next week to bring higher chances and coverage for thunderstorms and showers each day. Strong erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...Based on the forecast high temperatures for Tucson over the next 3 days, June 2024 will join July 2023 & June 2013 as the only calendar months on record to record triple-digit high temperatures every day. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson