Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
898 FXUS65 KTWC 232012 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 112 PM MST Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average this week. && .DISCUSSION...A strong ridge of high pressure will build into western states from the coast over the next 36 hours. This will continue our dry conditions, with a rapid heating trend to around 10 degrees above average by mid week. That means another batch of 100 degree temperatures for Tucson the second half of the week into at least early next week. Some fluctuations in heights and thicknesses, but the overall ridge over SE AZ pattern will continue next week as ensemble means suggest negative height anomalies upstream near the west coast and even even stronger downstream over eastern states. The tropical eastern Pacific has seen Hurricane John develop near the southern Mexico coast, with another area of development a little further west later in the week. There`s still no real signal that would bring that toward our area with a mean ridge position from the desert southwest through northwest Mexico. However, if we can get the ridge to shift a little further east, we could have a brief late season surge of moisture to start the new month. && .AVIATION...valid through 25/00z. Mostly SKC through the period. SFC winds will generally be less than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. Occasional afternoon gusts are possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend through the week. Temperatures will be 4 to 10 degrees above normal and peak by the end of the week. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph with the occasional gust. Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson