Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
127 FXUS65 KTWC 292031 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 PM MST Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next seven days as the calendar turns from May to June. && .DISCUSSION...Water Vapor imagery shows minor troughing over the Great Basin region with a small ridge to the east over New Mexico. This will bring some afternoon breezes and keeping temperatures around 100 degrees for Tucson and the lower desert elevations today. The pattern repeats for the rest of the weekend of high pressure building with some minor troughs to keep reduce the thickness values down slightly. Overall, temperatures will be run 4 to 6 degrees above normal through the end of the month and the start of June. It is a great time to get into the proper habits of heat mitigation efforts. By the end of the weekend and into the new week, the ensembles show a ridge building to the east with a low pressure center off the Baja California coast. This pattern can bring in some moisture into the region which will mainly result in high base and mainly dry storms by the middle to late week timeframe. The moisture creeping into area will first start in the eastern part of the state where the mountains will have the better chances for the any storm development. There is still uncertainty on how the ridge and low pressure will evolve for the first few days of the week. This will help determine how much and where the moisture may go. With any case, temperatures will run several degrees above normal for the start of June as that high pressure starts to build across the western states. Hot temperatures to come late next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 25k ft AGL through the forecast period. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 11-17 kts and gusts to 18-27 kts through 30/03Z, with the strongest SFC wind southeast of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG. Between 30/03z and 30/18Z, SFC winds less than 10 kts and variable in direction. After, WLY/NWLY SFC winds at 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts through the rest of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal through the upcoming weekend. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns this week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest sustained 20-foot winds will generally be across portions of Cochise County, where wind speeds will be in the 15-20 mph range, with some gusts to around 30 mph for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon hours. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson