604
FXUS65 KTWC 092205
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
weekend. Daily high temperatures will be near normal through
tomorrow, then several degrees above normal through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently centered
over northern Arizona/southern Utah is expected to retrograde
slightly west through tomorrow. Across southeast Arizona, dry
westerly flow is dominating the flow pattern aloft resulting in
another warm and dry desert day with typical afternoon breeziness
from daytime heating. Over the weekend, the aforementioned low will
stretch slightly south and westward bringing additional breeziness
as it sweeps back eastward.

Tuesday through Thursday another trough will move across the desert
southwest keeping high temperatures near normal but giving the White
Mountains a slight chance (~10%) of light precipitation each
afternoon.

Looking into next weekend, ridging and warming temperatures enter
the forecast focus with 50-70% chance of reaching 95 degrees on
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z.
SKC thru the majority of the forecast period with FEW-SCT cirroform
clouds AOA 20kft MSL between 11/06Z and 11/20Z. SFC winds WSWLY thru
NWLY until 10/03Z. Thereafter, SFC winds less than 12 kts. Tomorrow,
SFC winds increase again after 10/17Z becoming WSWLY thru NWLY with
speeds of 8-15 kts and occasional gusts of 20-25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will continue to be near normal
through Friday before climbing to 2-4 degrees above normal over the
weekend. Min RH values will remain in the single digits to lower
teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the
mountains. Saturday and Sunday afternoons, west to northwest winds
of around 15-20 mph combined with already low relative humidity in
place may result in near critical fire weather conditions.
Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness continues each afternoon
from daytime heating. Winds become light and variable overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DVS

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