110
FXUS65 KTWC 212051
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
151 PM MST Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with cooler mornings over the weekend.
High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average
for the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy today with cooler air as a low pressure
system pushes through the state. Best moisture / dynamics couplet
well north of our area with a dry frontal passage for SE AZ.
Cooler Sunday morning with 40s in eastern valleys and 50s to lower
60s across the lower deserts.

A strong ridge of high pressure building in from the west will
bring above average temperatures to western states, and will
support a return of 100 degree temperatures for Tucson by Tuesday
or Wednesday.

The ridge will buckle a bit later in the week, but ensemble means
keep it hanging in across Arizona and northwest Mexico into next
weekend as we remain between troughiness near the west coast and a
remnant low sagging down east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 23/00z.
SKC. SFC winds westerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to around
25 mph. Winds diminishing in the early evening, generally under 8
mph overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees
below normal Saturday. 20-foot winds will generally be 10 to 15
mph with occasional afternoon gust, especially east of Tucson.
Min RHs will generally be 14 to 20 percent in the lower locations
and 20 to 30 percent in the higher locations. Starting Sunday,
high pressure will bring above normal temperatures and lighter
and terrain driven winds through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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