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398
FXUS61 KILN 201013
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
613 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue today. An
upper level disturbance will lead to a chance for a few
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Better chances for showers
and thunderstorms will develop early next week as a frontal
boundary approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level ridge axis in place across the area this morning will
begin to flatten out this afternoon as mid level energy rides
over the top of it. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm
again today with afternoon highs into the upper 80s to lower
90s, with a few mid 90s even possible. This will lead to some
weak instability developing through the afternoon, with an axis
of stronger instability remaining off to our west and
northwest. This will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop off to our northwest through mid
afternoon and push southeast toward our area heading into late
afternoon, although the better chance for any pcpn should hold
off until this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Weakening mid level energy will push east into our area tonight
accompanied by a weak frontal boundary. As it does, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move southeast
into mainly our western areas this evening. However, expect to
see an overall weakening trend heading into tonight as the
instability will be decreasing. Will therefore allow for some
chance pops across our west early this evening and then taper
back to just 20 poops heading east into tonight. The boundary
will continue to push off to our east through the day on
Saturday. Suppose it will be tough to rule out a few showers
along the boundary across our southeast early Saturday morning,
but the better chance for any pcpn will be mainly off to our
southeast during the day. Lows tonight will be mostly in the
60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 ridge in place to start the period will quickly propagate
eastward through the end of the weekend. How quickly this ridge
shifts eastward will be important to monitor because in its wake, a
robust, elongated trough will begin to carve its way through the
Midwest. Showers/storms will accompany this trough, which could
begin as early as Sunday afternoon based on latest guidance.
Instability is weaker on Sunday however, so thunderstorm coverage
expected to be more limited. Instability levels will increase Monday
into Tuesday, which will promote better thunderstorm potential. Long-
range machine learning guidance not overly excited about severe
potential, but will have to monitor trends in CAMs as we get closer.

Expecting periods of showers/storms Monday into Tuesday with the
development of a surface low and a slow moving cold front to our
west. QPF footprint continues to increase from ensemble guidance,
with anomalous PWAT values increasing to the 1.75" range. Thus, some
efficient rainfall may be observed as we finally receive a robust
forcing mechanism and sufficient instability for thunderstorm
development. This may help provide some short-term relief from the
drought conditions.

Cold front moves through the region late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Near
or just below seasonal normal temperatures will return by mid-week
as relatively cooler air funnels in.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A few areas of VFR stratocumulus have developed early this
morning. This should translate into a few diurnal cu through
late morning and into this afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary will move into the area from the west
this evening and into the overnight hours. This will lead to
the potential for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm
this evening and perhaps lingering into tonight. Chances are low
enough to leave a mention out of the TAFS, although the best
chances would be at the western TAF sites in the 00Z-02Z
timeframe.

Otherwise, we will see an increase in mainly VFR clouds
tonight with some local MVFR cigs possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning, especially for areas to the west of
I-75.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL