-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
981
FXUS61 KILN 192301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
701 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Sunday until a
cold front moves through Sunday night. Monday will be slightly
cooler before the heat builds back in for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Hot and humid airmass continues to be in place and therefore
continued heat advisory. There is a weak boundary which is the
focus for thunderstorm development today. Better thunderstorm
development is expected to be across locations northwest of
Interstate 71 this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging
wind and heavy rain the main threats. There will be some fog
potential overnight, however confidence was not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisory is in effect for Thursday as another day of heat
and humidity is expected with heat index values around 100
expected. Went close to the blend for temperatures with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon again with the daytime heating.
Due to the environment, an isolated damaging wind gust cannot
be ruled out in addition to heavy rainfall from any storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge that is centered over the east coast to
retrograde west across the lower Ohio Valley and flatten some by the
end of the week. The threat for isolated to scattered storms will
persist around the periphery of the ridge across the northern
counties Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

Friday and Saturday will be hot, and perhaps the hottest of this
heat wave. However, with dew points forecast to be in the mid to
upper 60s, heat indices remain around 100, in the advisory range.
Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended into Saturday.

Progressive short wave to track across across the northern Plains
and then move through the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, continuing
eastward into New England Monday. This will allow a surface cold
front to track southeast across the region late Sunday into Sunday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front.

Surface high pressure will build in for Monday and pass quickly to
the east on Tuesday allowing for a quick return to southerly flow.
This high will offer a dry period of weather and cooler - near
normal temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s.

Temperatures return to the lower 90s on Tuesday. However, drier air
will remain in place with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Model solution timing differences exist regarding timing for the
next threat for showers and thunderstorms. Have held off pcpn until
Wednesday with the approach of the next shortwave - which is closer
aligned with ECMWF/Canadian solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated afternoon convection should end early in the TAF period as
diurnal instability diminishes around sunset. VFR conditions
are expected to persist for the TAF period outside of a low end
chance for some MVFR BR late overnight thanks to the humid air
in place. Any MVFR BR quickly mixes out after 1100z Thursday.
Shower and storm chances remain too low on Thursday for
inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

Winds generally remain light and variable for the TAF period since
no pressure gradient will be over the Ohio Valley.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Campbell