Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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266 FXUS65 KABQ 220625 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1225 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Numerous showers and storms are expected around the region today, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars. In addition, strong to severe storms may produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential downpours west of the Rio Grande Valley. Showers and storms will focus over the western high terrain tomorrow, but flash flooding cannot be ruled out again over recent burn scars. Scattered storm chances will stick around through early next week as temperatures rise to 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Precipitation chances and the accompanied flash flood risk may trend up again mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A sub-tropical atmosphere is in place across the state with moisture content ranging from 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal. As a result, rainfall will be more efficient than is typical and surface observations from this morning suggest that radar may be underestimating rainfall totals. Precipitation across the east is more stratiform, but clearing this morning has allowed for more robust convection to fire in the Four Corners region. A shortwave over the area is providing 20-40KT of bulk shear across this area which will help to organize storms as they quickly move to the northeast. Despite the relatively fast storm motions (around 20- 30KT), training storms will be capable of producing flash flooding, particularly over locations that received heavy rainfall yesterday. Hi-res models are in good agreement that storms will eventually organize into a line around 6PM this evening in an area extending roughly from Grants northward to Chama. This area and locations just east will likely receive the heaviest rainfall, with upwards of 3" possible. As the line approaches the Rio Grande Valley late in the evening, stabilization will likely result in decreasing rainfall rates. That being said, a few hours of moderate to locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. As previously mentioned, a relatively deep warm cloud layer will promote efficient rainfall rates so it won`t take much to produce a quick 0.25-0.75" of rain. Furthermore, the Flash Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar was extended through 6AM tomorrow since HREF guidance is continuing to storms sticking over that area past midnight. The southern half of the scar will be at greatest risk for flooding with the southwest flow, but cannot rule out heavy rainfall making it to the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains as well. Showery precipitation will linger over the western and southwest high terrain through the morning hours, potentially stabilizing the atmosphere too much for robust convection on Saturday afternoon. That being said, PWATs will still be 2-3 standard deviations above average so if skies do clear early afternoon, convection is likely to occur. With high pressure sliding overhead, slow and erratic storm motion will favor locally heavy downpours over the mountains, including over recent burn scars. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 With an elongated High to the south, shower and storm activity will focus along and north of I-40 on Sunday. With PWATs remaining around 1" or greater across the area, any storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. Storm motions will be slow as well from the west to the east. Moisture will continue to recycle over the state Monday and Tuesday as high pressure shifts overhead and intensifies. The stronger subsidence aloft will help temperatures rise above seasonal averages, resulting in a return of heat-related illness concerns, particularly Tuesday. Despite the subsidence aloft, PWATs should remain 100-200% of normal, supporting afternoon thunderstorm development over the high terrain each afternoon. Long-term ensemble guidance suggests that the ridge will begin to slide southward into northern Mexico by the middle of the week as troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in another uptick in storm chances, particularly across the northern half of the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across central and western areas through the overnight hours. Some of these showers or storms may move over terminals, in particular across central and western areas. Showers or storms should decrease in coverage around sunrise. Another round of showers and storms is expected Sunday afternoon and night favoring central and western areas. With this TAF package we included PROB30 groups for airports with higher chances of storms. Otherwise, TAF sites should be VFR, unless a stronger shower or storm moves over head potentially producing brief MVFR or IFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A sub-tropical airmass will generate numerous showers and storms around the region today through the overnight hours. The heaviest rainfall will focus across the western half of the state, but locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible anywhere. In general, 24-hour rainfall totals will range from 0.25" to 1.5" with locally as much as 3-4" over the Jemez mountains and surrounding areas. All this moisture will make for an excellent overnight RH recovery areawide. Tomorrow will likely be drier than today, with scattered showers and storms focusing over the western high terrain. Scattered showers and storms will continue each afternoon/evening through Monday as moisture recycles. Temperatures rise back above seasonal averages early next week, peaking on Tuesday or Wednesday. Widespread to numerous storms likely return Wednesday and Thursday next week as another surge of moisture comes up from the south. With high pressure overhead, winds will generally be light through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 91 63 92 / 0 10 0 10 Dulce........................... 53 88 47 87 / 0 10 0 10 Cuba............................ 61 83 56 86 / 10 30 10 20 Gallup.......................... 59 86 52 89 / 20 40 10 30 El Morro........................ 58 80 56 84 / 40 50 20 50 Grants.......................... 60 83 54 88 / 30 50 20 50 Quemado......................... 59 81 58 84 / 60 70 30 60 Magdalena....................... 64 83 65 87 / 40 60 20 50 Datil........................... 59 81 62 83 / 50 70 20 70 Reserve......................... 59 89 55 91 / 60 60 30 70 Glenwood........................ 67 96 70 96 / 50 60 20 70 Chama........................... 52 81 48 82 / 5 20 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 65 82 63 84 / 10 40 10 30 Pecos........................... 60 83 59 87 / 20 50 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 81 50 83 / 10 40 10 30 Red River....................... 49 74 47 76 / 10 40 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 49 76 44 80 / 10 40 5 20 Taos............................ 57 84 53 88 / 10 30 5 20 Mora............................ 56 81 52 85 / 10 50 10 30 Espanola........................ 64 90 61 92 / 10 30 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 63 84 63 87 / 20 40 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 87 61 89 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 89 69 93 / 30 40 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 91 68 94 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 93 67 97 / 20 30 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 91 68 94 / 20 30 10 20 Belen........................... 69 93 66 97 / 30 30 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 69 92 67 95 / 20 30 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 68 93 64 97 / 20 30 20 20 Corrales........................ 68 92 67 95 / 20 30 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 69 93 66 97 / 30 30 20 30 Placitas........................ 68 87 67 91 / 20 30 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 69 91 68 94 / 20 30 10 20 Socorro......................... 70 96 71 98 / 30 40 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 82 63 86 / 20 40 20 30 Tijeras......................... 64 85 64 89 / 20 40 20 30 Edgewood........................ 63 86 60 89 / 20 40 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 86 56 91 / 20 40 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 61 81 58 86 / 20 40 20 20 Mountainair..................... 62 85 61 89 / 30 40 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 63 86 61 89 / 30 40 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 67 91 68 94 / 20 30 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 81 60 85 / 20 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 59 83 57 87 / 10 50 5 20 Raton........................... 60 86 56 91 / 10 40 5 20 Springer........................ 60 88 58 92 / 10 40 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 60 78 57 87 / 20 40 10 20 Clayton......................... 66 89 65 95 / 10 30 5 5 Roy............................. 64 86 61 90 / 20 40 10 20 Conchas......................... 69 92 66 97 / 20 30 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 67 88 65 93 / 20 30 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 70 93 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 67 94 68 96 / 10 10 10 5 Portales........................ 67 94 69 97 / 5 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 93 68 97 / 10 10 10 5 Roswell......................... 70 99 72 101 / 5 10 0 5 Picacho......................... 66 91 64 94 / 10 30 10 30 Elk............................. 62 90 60 92 / 10 30 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ201>207-210- 211-214-215-217-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44