227
FXUS65 KABQ 251122 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Temperatures will warm a couple to a few degrees more in western
and central New Mexico today, but eastern New Mexico will stay
close to, if not a couple degrees below what was observed
yesterday, thanks to a weak front. Dry conditions will prevail
today with generally light winds expected. Temperatures will rise
a few degrees more into Thursday with readings reaching 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Only small day-to-day temperature changes
are then expected Friday into the weekend. A few weak showers and
thunderstorms will struggle to develop over the mountains and
nearby highlands each afternoon Friday through the weekend and
into early next week. Little, if any, rainfall is expected with
this activity, but rather gusty winds from evaporating rainfall
will be more likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

It will be another warm and tranquil day in the Land of Enchantment.
The ~592dam ridge will center itself over north-central New Mexico
today, keeping it dry with light winds. 500mb heights are above the
90th percentile for this time of year so high temps will be as well.
Temps warm a couple more degrees on Thursday as the center of the
ridge shifts southward and 500mb heights rise above the 95th
percentile. A few locations in western and central NM such as Gallup
and Farmington could flirt with record highs, while locations in the
east remain several degrees from record territory. Other than being
a little toasty, it should be a nice day with clear skies and light
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The upper high will stay over NM and the Four Corners states
Friday through the weekend, exhibiting slow evolution and small
orientation changes through this time. Pressure heights will tend
to stay in a 589-592 decameter range through this time frame. This
will keep daytime temperatures above average by 5 to 10 degrees in
western and central NM. Meanwhile eastern zones will hover near
to about 5 degrees above normal due to a weak easterly wind shift
brought on by subtle surface pressure rises over the southern
plains as the parent upper low works over the southeastern states.
A weak shortwave trough is depicted by forecast models sliding
southward out of CO on Friday, potentially shoving faint moisture
increases in the mid troposphere. This could lead to an uptick in
high-based cumulus which may develop into virga showers over the
mountains and highlands and perhaps a dry storm or two over the
Sangre de Cristos Friday afternoon. Confidence in measurable
rainfall is low, as forecast soundings show inverted-V
profiles with large opportunities for evaporative cooling beneath
the high cloud bases. Growing DCAPE and hence gusty downdraft
winds would likely be more impactful than the sprinkles or
attendant virga that would be an afternoon and evening ritual
Friday through the weekend.

The upper high wobbles northeast of the Four Corners on Monday,
and the operational GFS depicts the high strengthening quite a bit
with central heights rising toward 595 decameters. Other
deterministic model members (and of course ensembles) are not as
zealous, but all keep the upper high sprawling in a similar
location into Tuesday. The potential element of change could come
via a backdoor front that slides down the plains and into eastern
and eventually western NM Monday. MOS guidance carries Tuesday`s
daytime temperature readings down 3 to 8 degrees over the entirety
of the forecast area, but this seems hard to buy into if the
upper high remains in its advertised location with height
anomalies nearly 6 to 10 decameters above climatology. Other than
this potential temperature change, the forecast will remain mostly
dry early next week with the aforementioned mid level moisture
potentially getting eroded and reduced.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
With a ridge shifting overhead, light winds and clear skies will
persist around the area today and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
Ridging centers itself over the state today, keeping winds light and
temperatures above seasonal averages. Another backdoor front enters
from the east Friday, with little sensible weather change other than
an easterly breeze and slightly cooler temps across eastern and
central areas. Isolated, mostly dry, showers and storms will favor
the high terrain Friday through the weekend. Wetting rains are
unlikely, but gusty outflow winds over 30kts could accompany showers
and storms. Another, potentially stronger, backdoor front may arrive
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  86  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  81  40  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  79  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  84  46  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  81  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  83  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  82  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  80  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  86  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  89  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  75  44  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  78  55  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  77  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  76  48  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  67  43  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  72  29  76  27 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  79  43  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  76  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  85  48  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  79  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  82  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  61  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  53  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  88  51  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  87  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  87  49  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  88  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  87  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  84  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  89  56  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  82  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  41  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  81  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  85  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  80  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  81  45  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  51  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  51  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  83  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  83  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  84  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  52  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  58  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  53  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  79  50  85  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16