Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
539 FXAK67 PAJK 292229 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 229 PM AKDT Wed May 29 2024 .SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery today has shown clouds and showers rotating counter-clockwise around a low off the coast of Baranof Island. Some of the isolated showers are looking taller, with more development, which could cause some gusty winds and moderate rates when they pass by. However, there are lots of breaks between the showers, such as over some of the inner channels and clear skies on the north side of the low in Yakutat. Looking ahead, the low will slowly weaken to an open trough today, but models show the showers remaining around, in a general line from Mt. Fairweather to POW and over the mountains further inland through tonight. On Thursday, the isolated showers shift northward while dissipating. Meanwhile, another trough approaches the southern outer coast of POW and Baranof Islands. Showers with the second trough look to dissipate through the day with generally the largest breaks expected across the central inner channels. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side of normal over the next 24hrs with freezing levels between 3-4kft. Expect high temperatures to spike into the upper 50s to around 60F in sunny breaks. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/... Overview: Active weather pattern for the end of the week and into the mid range as upper levels lows keep a series of surface lows and fronts tracking into the region. Gale force fronts for Friday likely, Sunday possible. Moderate to heavy rain fall mainly over the southern Panhandle Friday, Sunday, and potential on Tuesday into Wednesday. Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with at least gale force winds developing. For inner channels southerly winds highest over Clarence Strait, 25 kts, then dropping into the 15 to 20 kt range progressing northward, then down to 10 to 15 kts north of Icy Strait. More steady and persistent rain begins as the front moves inland along with higher QPF amounts, especially over the south. Amounts upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches. New guidance keeps northern half of the region with lower chances for rainfall due to the front shearing apart and initial offshore flow. Another surface low rotates around the previous low into the SE Gulf expanding by Sunday. Potential for gales along this front over the SE Gulf along with more moderate to heavy rain to the south with rain totals nearing 1 inch. Similar trend with most precip to the south and offshore flow and position of the front having the north with lower chances of rain. Watching next weeks systems, especially Tuesday into Wednesday where moisture flow may be far enough north to hit the points over the southern regions with 1 to upward of 2 inches of rain. Early on still minor spread between operational GFS/NAM and ECMWF/Canadian but overall similar synoptic pattern. Ensembles continue to put the broad 500 mb low over the gulf into next week keeping the active pattern in place. && .AVIATION...Variable flight conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR across the panhandle this early afternoon with rain showers moving through the area. Winds and wind gusts are increasing as a strong weather front moves over the eastern gulf with gusts up to 30kts near pakt,pahn and pajn. These will increase to be near 35 to 40 kt along with increasing LLWS from the southeast as the front moves over the inner channels. The LLWS will shift to the south/southwest as the front moves east of the area through the early morning hours. The showers will transition to rain as the front moves over the area late this afternoon into tonight. This will slowly deteriorate conditions down to consistent MVFR with some locations seeing IFR conditions tonight. Conditions should lift by daybreak to be near VFR conditions and much lighter winds and limited LLWS. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...ABJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau