672
FXAK67 PAJK 160428 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
827 PM AKDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SHORT TERM...It`s a tale of two worlds today as most of the
panhandle continues to see mostly clear skies and cool temperatures.
The southern panhandle continues to be hit by accumulating snow this
afternoon. There is expected to be a lull before the next wave moves
in this evening bringing a reinforcing shot of precipitation to the
southern panhandle. This will keep the snow falling across the area
before the low works farther to the east. Right now, the heaviest
snow is expected to end tomorrow morning but there will still be
some snow showers that persist through the morning and into the
afternoon. Our next front to affect all of the panhandle will move
into the area Sunday night into Monday morning that will bring more
snow to the panhandle. Accumulations from this front look to remain
relatively low but accumulations could reach up to 3-4" for some
locations by Monday morning.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday through Thursday / Upper level trough is
pushing through the panhandle Monday in to Tuesday bringing a band
of organized shower into the panhandle. A ridge aloft is moving
slowly east as the next advancing system occupies the western and
then central Gulf of Alaska. A developing wave in the north Central
Pacific on the frontal band moves north along it into the eastern
gulf Tuesday. So, look for burst of precipitation, and gusty winds
for coastal Communities that may see gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

The front seems to be a slow moving feature nearly stalling along
the front, as another feature on the front is advancing towards the
southern panhandle Wednesday and this will increase precipitation
rates and winds for Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on the
amount of warming with the frontal band, elevated terrain of Prince
of Wales Island and rest of the panhandle may be able to pick up a
few inches of snow headed into Thursday morning.

Outlook. Multiple low centers look to settle over the gulf Friday
through next weekend. These lows and troughs will rotate about each
other (fujiwhara effect) sending bands of strong winds and
precipitation over the region. Some models have low centers close
enough to the coast to be at risk for high wind. Models struggle
with these complex patterns and often change positions with each new
model run. Therefore, there will be more uncertainty in the forecast
during this time, particularly with the marine forecast. Expect
active weather with short breaks in between lows/frontal bands.

&&

.AVIATION...For the northern half of the panhandle, quiet weather
and clear skies continue, with lingering outflow winds and
occasional gusts during the warmer parts of the day. Chances of
precip begin returning Sunday night to Yakutat. Widespread VFR
conditions.

For the southern panhandle. Significant restrictions to visibility
and ceilings as snow continues due to a snow band which has
stalled over Ketchikan and Metlakatla. Snowfall will continue
through Saturday night before diminishing through the day on
Sunday. Expect drier weather to return for the latter half of
Sunday before chances of precip begin to once more show up by late
Sunday night into Monday. IFR and potentially LIFR conditions at
times for the far southern panhandle through Saturday night, with
conditions improving as one heads north.

&&

.MARINE...Outflow conditions are expected to persist with a low
continuing to move across the Dixon Entrance. For the Inner
Channels, winds are expected to remain around where they have been
while the low transits to the east. Once this low moves out of the
area, speeds are expected to decrease before increasing ahead of our
next system that moves into the area for next week. Along the outer
coast, gaps in terrain will continue to be the windiest spots while
seas continue to remain around 6-10ft across the outer coast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF

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