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000
FXAK67 PAJK 252311
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...Difficult short term
forecast with the main forecast challenge being where P-type will
be snow, how much will fall, and when the transition to rain will
occur. Little to no cooperation from Mother Nature today with
regard to the cooperate conceptual model of this event.
Eventually, the snow will transition to rain and the rain will
become heavy at times on Monday.

In terms of wind, pre-frontal gale force winds to 40 kts are
currently blowing over the eastern Gulf. As the front blows
through, winds will shift to the southwest and ease a bit
overnight...then continue to slowly relax through Monday night. On
the inside, there are some gale force winds as of early this
evening, with more gales tomorrow - for Lynn Canal. elsewhere,
all other inner channels will see small craft conditions between
now and Monday evening. At that time, wind will begin to
diminish...to be below small craft levels by Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM.../Tue through Sun as of 10 pm Sat/ Following the
departure of the most recent system, more seasonably mild and
moist conditions will prevail across SE Alaska. Ensembles indicate
that onshore southwesterly flow will continue through the bulk of
this period. This will encourage ongoing chances of rain showers
across this period throughout the panhandle.

While the deterministic models remain in broad agreement about the
anticipated pattern, discrepancies continue to exist regarding the
timing of embedded disturbances in the flow. The most potentially
impactful of these events would be towards Wednesday or Thursday as
a possible shortwave trough with a corresponding increase in
moisture transport moves over the area. Confidence on the location
and timing of this system remains low, with some models continuing
to have it move south of the panhandle entirely. Additionally,
some models are indicating that the potential exists for an
additional system towards the end of the week into the weekend.
Chose to increase chances of precipitation and amounts of
precipitation to show the potential for additional impacts from
these events, but considerable uncertainty remains.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-031>036-053.

&&

$$

Fritsch/SUK

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