721
FXAK67 PAJK 112318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / The frontal band from
the next incoming moving across the gulf, with warm frontal like
feature this evening into the Northeast Gulf Coast and Panhandle,
and cold front approaches and moving into the area starting early
Thursday. Periods of the rain may be heavier over the Northeast
gulf coast and then to the northern panhandle through Thursday
afternoon.

Marine winds increasing to Small Craft and Gale levels for the
outer coastal waters and not quite a strong over the inner
channels, however, should see higher wind speeds and locally gusty
conditions Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Am not
anticipating significant issues from the wind.

.LONG TERM...
Friday morning the negatively tilted trough that brought gale
force winds to the coast will continue to weaken and expand,
morphing into a much broader open longwave trough as it begins to
transit south along the western seaboard. As the surface pressure
gradient weakens, so will the wind. Expect rain to continue
through Friday, tapering off through Saturday morning as a quick
moving ridge of high pressure moves into the gulf.

While rain tapers off Saturday, an active pattern continues in
the Bering Sea, which will allow another low and associated front
to move into the western Gulf by early Sunday. Dynamics associated
with this feature are limited aloft, helping to keep the surface
pressure gradient from dropping below 990mb. With that said we
still have anomalously high sea surface temperatures south of the
Aleutians which could help strengthen surface frontal features and
add some further detail to the forecasted winds.

Overall the main story for us is stout southwest winds south of
the Aleutians and Alaskan Peninsula, forming a trapped fetch which
will enhance winds and wave significant heights as this system
propagates northeast into the Gulf by early Sunday. Ensemble
guidance shows agreement with the location of this wind and
resulting fetch but vary in strength. The current long range
forecast is heavily dependent on the stronger GEFS solution to
capture the higher winds speeds across the range of ensemble
solutions. As wind and waves increase in the Gulf late Sunday
expect light rain to fill in over the Panhandle, with 24-hour
rainfall amounts well within the range of what we would consider
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Current conditions remain in VFR with some MVFR in the
northern panhandle. Flying conditions will start to deteriorate tonight
through tomorrow as a front moves across the gulf and panhandle.
This front will bring precipitation and wind, with the main impact
being wind. Expect ceilings and visibilities to decrease flying
conditions to MVFR and IFR. There is a chance of low level wind
shear occurring across the panhandle. Currently, areas along the
gulf have the highest chance of wind shear. The central and
northern panhandle could experience wind shear as well.

&&

.MARINE...Coastal waters west of Icy Bay increase to Small Craft
levels by the afternoon, but will increase the barrier jet near
Cape Suckling to strong gale force winds later tonight. Expect
gales to reach over towards Cape Fairweather Thursday. Interaction
of the barrier jet with a developing southerly swell will lead to
seas of 15+ ft south of Cape Suckling by late tonight. Winds of
25 to 30 kt for rest of the outer waters, and pushing into some of
the inner channels by early Thursday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-034>036-053-641>643-
     661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau