349
FXAK67 PAJK 150528
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
928 PM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.UPDATE...6z Aviation Update

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Key Points:
- Ridge over the gulf continues partly cloudy skies and
  dry conditions
- High temperatures reaching mid to high 60s this week
- Light winds with afternoon sea breezes

Details: The ridge off the outer coast continues to build through
the beginning of the week with a broad upper level high
stagnating over the gulf. The consistent northwesterly flow will
allow for dry conditions to continue and skies to clear out
through the next few days. Light winds persist through the period
with the exception of afternoon sea breezes, which could increase
onshore wind speeds up to 15 to 20 kts in places like Skagway and
in the channels. The clearing skies will allow temperatures to
increase to mid to high 60s with some areas even reaching the 70s.
As these daytime temperatures increase, sea breezing will
increase with the strengthening temperature gradient. This will
also allow for the development of a marine layer along the coast,
in Yakutat, and into the inner channels as a low cloud deck. Early
morning fog development is expected for many communities on the
inner coastline such as Angoon, Kake, and Petersburg. Areas near
Frederick Sound may see visibilities decrease to a quarter statute
mile at times. Fog will dissipate as the sun comes up and
temperatures begin to rise.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Friday / The ridge over the gulf
Wednesday will flatten slightly leading to a more zonal like flow
across the southern gulf the British Columbia by Friday. A weak
trough spreads some light rain into the Northeast gulf coast
Wednesday to early Thursday. The zonal flow may not run across the
southern panhandle Friday and Saturday and Sunday /positions is
variable in the models/, but any shortwaves could potentially clip
the area with precipitation, Friday or Saturday. Short waves are
small, would be fairly quick moving so isolating them may be
issued.

Wednesday should fairly sunny for the inner channels but will be
needing to watch the Marine layer out over the gulf that is pushing
to the coast, and likely trying to spread into the panhandle over
the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Only one large change made to the 6z TAF, with
mostly similar ideas going forward. Still looking at a resurgence
of the marine layer overnight, which looks to stick around Yakutat
all day tomorrow. May see some breaks for Yakutat, but difficult
timing if it will occur. For Gustavus, looks like the cloud deck
has moved in a tad early in from Cross Sound. With the sun still
present, looking to keep this as a tempo group before the sun sets
and the cloud deck moves over the taf site properly.

For the one change, Ketchikan winds look to stay elevated through
the night, which will mix out any low clouds that attempt to
develop over the area. For most of the southern panhandle, not
looking at much fog or cloud development due to increasing
northerly winds in Clarence Strait mixing out the atmosphere.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Light northwesterly winds in the gulf begin to
increase tonight as the ridge continues to build. Wind speeds
along the coast will increase to fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27
kts) Tuesday morning and will persist into Wednesday when the
high pressure begins to weaken. Wave heights at 4 to 5 ft increase
through Monday night to nearly 8 ft off the southern coast of
PoW. With the clear skies and warming temperatures, a marine layer
is expected to develop along the coast. Based on persistance, it
will most likely begin early off the coast of Yakutat and travel
south.

Inside Waters: Light winds persist in the inner channels through
the day with the exception of afternoon onshore sea breezes
picking up to moderate breezes (11 to 16 kts). Cross Sound into
Icy Strait and Lynn Canal will see the strongest winds Tuesday
afternoon, with Northern Lynn potentially seeing up to 20 kts of
wind. Winds in southern Clarence Strait will continue to increase
through the period as the tightening ridge increases offshore
flow. Increasing temperatures and clearing skies may allow for fog
and marine layer development in the early morning which will
dissipate as the morning goes on. Channel entrances may see the
low cloud deck attempt to push inward through the morning,
especially through Cross Sound. Some areas near Frederick Sound
may see visibilities decrease to near a quarter mile with fog
development.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...ZTK

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