Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 212308

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...Today has been another
sunny and warm day around the area. As of 1:30PM, temps around
most of the region have warmed into the 60s, near 70 here at the
office in the back of the Mendenhall Valley! But going forward, in
short  the weather goes in a different direction beginning
tomorrow. SE AK will be going from the sunny and warm weather,
like today, to rainy and cloudy with closer-to-normal temps. But
some folks, mainly in the north, will be able to squeeze out one
more sunny and warm day.

The details  500mb high pressure pattern switches from an
offshore flow to an onshore flow early Sunday as an upper level
low moves into the gulf from the south.

Closer to the surface, on Sunday - a surface low moves into the
gulf with the lows associated front tracking toward the
panhandle. This would increase cloud cover with eventual pre-
frontal showers developing in the afternoon. Then the actual
front will arrive, bringing rain to SE AK Sunday night into early
Monday. Once the front passes over, showers around the area are a
good bet through the rest of Monday.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/...Leftover showers linger
through Monday and into Tuesday. Then around midweek, late
Tuesday into Wednesday night, there is evidence of a low pressure
center passing to the south of the panhandle. Deterministic
models and ensemble averages are in agreement about this next low,
for now. The speed of the low and track of the low are different,
but at this point, all evidence points to a low in the gulf and
thats a win in our books.

If the low does end up passing SE AK to the south, this would
cause a brief period of offshore flow for the northern half. This
would lower chances for showers and decrease cloud cover. For
now, forecaster went with the NBM, with a little GFS, to put
partly cloudy skies in the forecast for areas along the Icy Strait
corridor and to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures during this time shouldnt have real big swings
between day and night. Sunday will be the warmest day with highs
reaching the upper 50s to near 70, coolest temps along the coast
and warmest temps near Juneau and in the northern Lynn Canal area.
Going forward into the week, highs are more likely to be in the
50s, which is near, or just below, normal for late May. Overnight
temps will be warmer once the clouds roll in, bottoming out in the
upper 30s to low 40s around the panhandle.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.




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