187
FXAK67 PAJK 162318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...Overall 500mb pattern in
the short term is a ridge of high pressure with a weak low
pressure riding over the northern edge of the high. This kind of
pattern would give SE AK a chance for showers or on/off rain. Not
much an impact in the day-to-day activities.

Because of the surface ridge, general south winds are expected. But
as the weak low tracks SE through the eastern gulf, what little wind
that is out there this afternoon should lighten up as the pressure
gradient weakens.

One big change to the forecast was Friday`s high temp for the
southern panhandle. Temps were lowered to the low to mid 50s. This
was done because MOS and bias corrected models all pointed to temps
in the lower 50s, so went ahead and allowed for that change.

But from a 30-thousand foot view, the weather through Friday
night is looking quiet and non-impactful. Just a few passing
showers and slightly below normal temps.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday through Tuesday night / Incoming frontal
band, pushes ridge axis through Southeast Alaska Saturday. The
front then moves into the eastern Gulf and panhandle Sunday. Winds
ahead of the front will be near gale force and near small craft
into the inner channels on Sunday. Will be watching for the amount
of QPF, at present, it is not looking enough to threaten flooding.

A large high amplitude ridge builds over the central gulf Monday
into Tuesday this will assist in moving the late weekend system
and push the rain into Canada. Expect to see clearing conditions
through Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...CIG and VIS within the MVFR/IFR range due low to mid
level cloud cover early today and late tonight with some early-
morning fog possible again. VFR flight category through the 24-hour
TAF period as the region will be under the reign of a ridge of high
pressure. Additionally, SFC winds and LLWS values will remain benign
through the period due to a relatively relaxed pressure gradient
over the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...PRB

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