316
FXAK67 PAJK 220005
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 PM AKDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A front passing through northern panhandle has brought cooler
  and cloudier conditions for the north with a few showers. Warm
  and dry weather will continue for the southern panhandle.

- Periods of elevated winds and seas continue for much of the
  outer coastal waters and inner channels, especially Clarence
  Straight, Cross Sound, Icy Straight and Lynn Canal. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect.

- Trending cooler and wetter from north to south mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday/...The front that brought rain to
the north and central panhandle has continued to move eastward this
afternoon. Some lower clouds remain, but heaviest rain has moved
east of the area. As onshore flow continues allowing for there to be
a few light showers that continue for northern areas. The southern
panhandle has stayed dry with clear skies. Because of these clear
conditions places near Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Hyder reached
80 degrees. As we head into Wednesday, similar conditions will
prevail with light showers over the north and drier conditions for
the south. As the sharp ridge begins to flatten, more onshore flow
will begin Wednesday. Although remaining dry, the southern
panhandle may see a few more clouds developing with slightly cooler
temperatures.

A full change in pattern arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. At
this time an area of low pressure pushes into the northern gulf. As
this system arrives, rain showers will begin as early as Wednesday
evening for northern areas. Widespread rain then begins Thursday as
a low moves more into the central gulf. Mainly light rain rates will
occur Thursday morning before slightly heavier rates begin Thursday
evening for the north and central panhandle. 24 hour rain rates will
still remain on the lower side, but rain will continue into Friday
giving an overall longer rain event.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...A front moving eastward
into the panhandle will continue to spread inland into the
southern panhandle through Friday morning. Rain will start to
taper off from north to south through Friday and into Saturday,
though continued onshore flow will keep the potential for showers
elevated through the weekend. Rainfall rates may be heavier with
the initial onset of the front, with the indication for a plume of
moisture being directed into the central and southern panhandle.
Behind the initial front, light rainfall rates should take hold
for the rest of the period, though more developed showers may
bring periods of heavier rainfall and gusty winds as they blow
over.

Winds will increase for parts of the N/S facing inner channels
with the front, though expecting speeds to remain around 15 to 20
mph and decrease into the weekend. The strongest speeds are
expected through Northern Lynn Canal and into Taiya Inlet, which
may be accentuated by any light sea breezing through the
afternoon. These winds have been increased to 30 to 35 mph through
Thursday, but should decrease down to 20 to 25 mph and continue
to drop through the weekend. As the low dips south through the
weekend, winds in the northern panhandle may turn offshore Sunday
night.

As this low dips southward through the weekend, easterly flow
indicates potential for Thunderstorms in BC to attempt to make it
over the Coastal Range and into the panhandle. While it is still
too far out to decide if this will be a strong enough pattern,
this will continue to be looked at through the week. High
temperatures will be capped around the low to mid 60s with the
increased cloud cover and active weather in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Wednesday afternoon/...An elevated trough
brought light showers and lowered CIGs to the panhandle from
Petersburg northward and continues to move inland into BC this
afternoon. While rain has largely come to an end, lowered CIGs
will remain in its wake along with to fairly benign surface winds
for much of the inner channels. Further south along the outer
coast, increasing parallel and onshore flow will continue to bring
intermittent MVFR conditions due to lowered CIGs, with southwest
coastal PoW likely to see a marine layer push back in for
Wednesday morning before clearing out similar to today. Mid to low
level clouds will continue for the outer coast, particularly
north of Sitka, through the period as well. While there remains no
LLWS concerns, localized sea breezes could still provide some
bumps on approach. For the northern coast, another system will
push into the region bringing further deteriorating conditions by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outer Waters: Building surface high pressure near the eastern gulf
coast will strengthen northwesterly winds along the coast, with
surface observations at Cape Spencer already reporting surface
winds around 25 kt as of 4pm Tuesday. Given the longer fetch and
stronger winds, wind waves are expected to exceed 8 ft from Cape
Spencer and south towards Dixon Entrance, with little swell
influence. These conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday ahead of an approaching system in the northern gulf, before
gradually weakening and subsiding into Thursday.

Inner Waters: Somewhat persistent, predominantly westerly flow for
the inside waters, with strong breezes for Cross Sound, Icy Strait
and the backside of Douglas Island are on tap for the rest of
Tuesday. The exception is the current brief reprieve in the
northern inner channels due to the upper level trough quickly
lifting inland, causing some erratic shifts in wind direction and
overall slackening of the gradient. Maximum winds should develop
around the evening timeframe, enhanced by low pressure developing
in northern British Columbia and strengthening high pressure in
the gulf waters. A surge of energy is then expected to move over
the NE gulf coast and into the northern inner channels Thursday,
bringing strong breezes to near gales for Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ

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