000
FXAK67 PAJK 012207
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
207 PM AKDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure system in the SE Gulf remains quasi
stationary. first frontal band moved over the region Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning with a second developing wave
tracking northward Thursday evening. Bands of showers over the
central panhandle could be seen on satellite as the moved northward.
The second wave will bring another round of small crave winds to
the gulf and increasing shower activity for the southern
panhandle. Rainfall totals over the south will only be around a
quarter of an inch. As the front moves northward it shears apart
and weakens resulting in diminishing winds and showers becoming
more scattered. As with teh last few front associated with the SE
Gulf low the northerly extend of the showers is still uncertain
so have keep chance probability. inner channel winds continue to
shift with these advancing fronts but with the exception of the
far south where speeds will be near 20 kt the rest of the areas
should be at 15 kt or lower. 850 mb temps just start the
increasing trend Friday with surface temps up a few degrees. Only
minor changes to inherited forecast as models were still in good
alignment.


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/...Made only minor changes
to the extended forecast with only some adjustments to wind
speeds along with temperature and PoP tweaks. For the most part
overall, left the going forecast as is.

Ensemble guidance continues to show the low over the southern
panhandle merging with a weaker low located over inland Canada
Sunday evening into Monday morning. With the location of the low,
currently think most of the precipitation will be located over the
southern panhandle before being confined to the coastal mountains as
well as British Columbia. There could be some showers that are able
to spill over into the areas just west of the Coast Mountains, but
do not think that they will bring much in the way of accumulation to
the area. Behind the low, a ridge will build into the area allowing
for warmer temperatures to return to the area. This ridge does not
persist long though as a low moves east along the Aleutian chain up
to the Alaska peninsula. This low will allow for warmer temperatures
from where we have been this week, but also could provide more
moisture to the area increasing the threat of rain. Confidence on
the exact location of this low is less than ideal as models are
still struggling with the idea of where the low goes. Will have to
continue to monitor throughout the weekend.

In the long term, guidance from CPC continues to show an increased
likelihood of seeing warmer than normal temperatures for the area.
Precipitation looks to have equal chances to either be above normal,
below normal, or near normal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...A mixture of MVFR and VFR CIG and VIS conditions are in
store for the southern half of the area from Sitka southeastward.
This is from the front that is over the area at this time and a
second one that will affect that area late tonight into Friday. For
these areas, conditions will improve to more VFR by the late evening
and overnight but that will not last long as a second front moves
over the area to bring in chances of MVFR conditions. There is still
some areas of enhanced LLWS over POW and that will spread towards
PAKT later tonight as the next front moves over the area. The LLWS
will increase to around 30 knots out of a southeasterly direction.
For the Yakutat and Skagway areas, VFR CIG and VIS conditions are
anticipated through the entire TAF period. Showers in the Icy Strait
corridor and Juneau area will produce periods of MVFR conditions in
CIGs early this evening but should be mostly VFR through the
overnight hours into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...ABJ

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