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FXAK67 PAJK 242247
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.SHORT TERM...Rain showers continue across the panhandle north of
Petersburg this afternoon. While farther south, showers have come
to an end. Another weak low and front are expected to move into
the Gulf of Alaska this evening. This front will bring a return
for precipitation to the Panhandle. Most of these showers are
expected to be rain with the exception of snow showers to the
upper elevations and mountain passes. Snow accumulations are
expected to remain below a couple of inches while most places are
expected to see somewhere between 0.25" and 0.75" for most places
for liquid accumulations. As the showers come to an end Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, we will start to see an outflow
pattern set up across the Panhandle.

.LONG TERM...For the long term, a low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will be moving northward toward the panhandle. A
high pressure system in the Arctic Ocean is expected to build and
extend down into the Northwestern Territories. This will cause
the N-S pressure gradient to tighten, influencing strong outflow
winds through the northern channels. Lynn Canal will see Northerly
gales building late Wednesday into Thursday, influencing a gale
warning Thursday morning and small craft advisories into Friday
night. The front associated with the low is expected to bring
precipitation to the southern panhandle, the majority of which
will occur south of Sitka and Angoon. Temperatures will be warming
up through the week with highs in the mid 50s in the southern
panhandle. With clear skies in the forecast for the northern
panhandle, we will most likely see cooler temperatures overnight
due to radiative cooling. As we head into the weekend, ensembles
continue to keep the weather active with a low in the Gulf of
Alaska giving way to a low moving up from the Northern Pacific.
Right now, nothing stands out as being problematic but guidance
will still need to be watched in case this changes going forward.


&&

.AVIATION...No big changes to the weather story in aviation world.

Overall, conditions have been trying to improve through the day from
S to N but there are some isolated spots that are struggling to get
out of MVFR. Weak ridging will build over the panhandle tonight.
Expect MVFR CIGS to return, if those conditions were able to improve
to VFR in those isolated spots, later this evening for mainly those
areas north of Frederick Sound.

Late tonight into Tuesday, as the next round of precip moves north,
CIGS and VIS will lower as the rain tracks through. Also, there is
some potential for LLWS. Went ahead and included LLWS in the Sitka
TAF. That being said, the HREF is producing a widespread 50 to 70%
chance of LLWS developing late this evening for areas along and
south of Icy Strait.


&&

.MARINE...Fresh to strong breezes will continue along the outer coast
this evening as the next week front moves up into the Gulf of
Alaska. Seas will remain elevated across the southern Outer Coast
around 8- 12ft while farther north, seas are expected to be around
6-9ft for the forecast period. For the Inner Channels, fresh to
strong breezes are expected with the showers moving through along
the next front. Behind the front, winds are expected to drop to a
fresh to moderate breeze before the outflow pattern starts to
emerge across the area. Once the outflow sets up, gales are
expected to return for those areas favored by outflow winds
Wednesday and into Thursday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....Contino/ABJ/ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF

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